Theatre of war: Putin’s deadly dramatics over Ukraine

Vladimir Putin now knows that the West won’t fight for Ukraine. The past few weeks have shown that. All options are open to Moscow. Russian troops could march on Kiev or stay on the border destabilising Ukraine’s economy until its government gives way. If Putin wanted a fight, he would win — at least initially. No western military force will stop Russia from crossing the border.

The main question is what punishment the West would be able to inflict on Russia after an incursion. Would Nato members be able to agree on what approach to take? Tensions within the alliance have been exposed. Jake Sullivan, Joe Biden’s national security adviser, has complained to Congressional Democrats that Germany needs ‘constant coaxing’ on a sanctions-led response to Russian aggression.

Nato, set up to counter the Soviet Union at the start of the Cold War, is trying to deter Russia not through military force but through the threat of such sanctions. These would hurt far more than those imposed on Russia after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Moscow would be cut off from the global financial system, and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, built to bring Russian gas directly to Germany, would never be turned on. Such a response would be public and proportionate.

Putin’s retaliation would not be either of these things. He could launch cyber-attacks on western banks, carried out by independent Russian hackers, giving Moscow the ability to deny knowledge. He could also cause harm indirectly. Putin has already suspended the export of ammonium nitrate (Russia provides roughly two thirds of the world’s supply), which will hit fertiliser and food prices. It’s a reminder to western countries that he can make the domestic cost of living crises far worse. Biden was right to prepare his voters for the fact that imposing sanctions on Russia won’t be cost-free for America.