Finally the Tory government appears to have realised that its serial mishandling of the Channel boats issue is the top cause of the voter disaffection that is killing its re-election prospects.
Rishi Sunak’s administration now understands that the position he has set out so far – saying there is no ‘silver bullet’ to solve the dinghy problem, and that progress will require careful and patient work across many fronts – will not suffice, if well-briefed pieces in the weekend newspapers are anything to go on .
As Nick Timothy – co-author of a radical new pamphlet on the issue that recommends withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights, blanket refusal of asylum applications from illegal arrivals, standard detention and offshore processing – notes in today’s Daily Telegraph:
‘The time for incrementalism is over.’
Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick – a long-time Sunak ally and confidant – has floated the idea of new arrangements that would bar Albanians from making asylum claims and set in place a rapid returns policy with Albanian authorities.
If Jenrick thinks he can sell that to the public on the proverbial wet Wednesday night in Dudley then he needs to get out more
But even if such a deal could be arrived at and worked perfectly, ensuring the deportation of every Albanian claimant, the number of dinghy arrivals from other countries would still exceed the 28,500 who came in 2021, which was in itself a record year. So the crisis would not be anything like over.
In fact, no feasible bespoke arrangement for Albanians would work perfectly. Some would claim to be from different countries, while others would exploit many other loopholes in the system – such as modern slavery legislation, the ability simply to abscond and courts that might be sympathetic to individual human rights-based challenges.
Meanwhile a report in the Times suggests Jenrick is about to implement a new ‘fast track’ process for applicants from war-torn countries such as Syria and Afghanistan in a bid to help clear a backlog of 160,000 asylum cases. Yet given the current acceptance rates – 97 per cent for Afghans and 98 per cent for Syrians – such an express system would amount to a de facto instant amnesty for illegal immigrants from those countries. If Jenrick thinks he can sell that to the public on the proverbial wet Wednesday night in Dudley then he needs to get out more.
While Jenrick is highly regarded in Downing Street, it is the minister he is in the Home Office to ‘mind’ who has the capacity to blow the lid off the whole issue of border control. Home Secretary Suella Braverman has written a foreword to Timothy’s pamphlet for the Centre for Policy Studies.
While she says in it that she does not agree with every proposal in his report – without specifying any particular area of disagreement (presumably ID cards) – the fact she has put her name to a sympathetic preface to such an explosive set of suggestions is highly significant.
‘With clear thinking, political will, and determination, we can prevail against the smuggling gangs, against those who abuse our system, and we will comprehensively tackle the small boats problem,’ writes Braverman.
Sunak appears to have given his Home Secretary the nod to signal her support for the general direction called for by Timothy and his co-author Karl Williams.
But he must know that Braverman, who played a key role in terminating the premiership of Liz Truss and then blocking the return of Boris Johnson, has the capacity to blow up against him as well.
The traditional right of the Conservative parliamentary party and many red wall MPs as well have repeatedly shown in the Commons they have her back. Given her position as the most senior Tory to retain significant credibility with the hordes of voters who have turned their backs on the party over what she has termed an ‘invasion’, to risk falling out with her would be very bold (copyright Sir Humphrey Appleby).
And yet the kind of measures recommended by Messrs Timothy and Williams, especially withdrawing from the European Convention and by implication the European Court of Human Rights which supervises adherence to it, would certainly cause Sunak a different kind of grief.
His early weeks in Downing Street have shown just how highly he values being part of the club of conventional western leaders, such as Macron and Trudeau. Joining Russia and Belarus as European nations not in the ECHR would bring a swift end to backslapping and beaming sessions with them.
It is widely expected within Tory circles that Sunak will show his hand very early in the New Year, with a package of measures including further legislative plans. That would correspond to a pledge he made during the summer leadership contest that he would tackle the issue within his first 100 days.
Its contents – increments or silver bullets – will tell us which he most values: protecting his international brand as a widely admired Davos whiz-kid or maximising his chances of holding onto power at the next general election.
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