Trainer Jamie Osborne has targeted OUZO at most of the big one-mile handicaps since taking over the training of the horse at the beginning of last season from Richard Hannon. To date, the gelding is zero wins from 11 runs for Osborne but that statistic does not tell the full story.
Ouzo has run some splendid races in defeat, most of them with the trainer’s daughter Saffie in the saddle, and his consistency means he has failed to drop far down the handicap. The gelding, now seven, certainly deserves a change of luck and I am hoping that he gets one as soon as tomorrow (Sandown, 2.25 p.m.) when he contests the Coral Challenge handicap, once again over a mile and once again the talented Saffie Osborne gets the ride.
In fact, horse and rider were third in this race a year ago, off the same mark of 94, despite being deprived of a clear run a furlong out. Ouzo also showed he is as good as ever with a fine run at Royal Ascot after a 117-day break, when sixth in the Royal Hunt Cup last month in a competitive 30-runner race.
Ouzo’s record at Sandown is a good one: a first, second and third from three runs at the track so there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that he will run well on likely ‘good’ ground that will suit him. Back him each way at 15/2 with Ladbrokes or Coral, both offering four places.
My second and final bet this weekend is in one of the other competitive handicaps being shown on ITV: the bet365 Old Newton Cup at Haydock over a mile and a half (tomorrow, 3.15 p.m). If Cumulonimbus is allowed as a soft lead as he was last time out over this course and distance, then he could well complete his hat trick for his trainer Charlie Fellowes.
However, with more prominent runners in tomorrow’s field, I am hoping the pace will be faster and that this will suit Brian Ellison’s ONESMOOTHOPERATOR, who was fourth to Cumulonimbus at Haydock last time out. Onesmoothoperator was definitely not suited by the slow pace that day as he stays much further and was ridden ‘cold’. Two furlongs out, he was still last but he battled on to be a fast-finishing fourth.
With a weight pull of 5lbs with the winner, Onesmoothoperator has every chance of reversing the form if the race is run to suit him. Back him each way at 11-1 with Sky Bet, offering six places, rather than other bookies offering slightly better odds but less places. Sadly, he is not a horse to rely on as he runs as many poor races as good ones and, being a hold-up horse, he will need luck in running. However, he is the value at the odds in this competitive contest for a pot of more than £77,000 to the winner.
The big race tomorrow is the Group 1 Coral-Eclipse with some hugely talented horses in the four-runner field, notably Emily Upjohn and Paddington. My marginal preference is for Paddington but he is a short-priced favourite and there is no value there for punters.
Last but certainly not least, I have a strong ante-post fancy for later this month. The horse in question is FRESH for the seven-furlong Moet & Chandon International Stakes at Ascot on 29 July . James Fanshawe’s six-year-old gelding won this race last year off a rating of 98. He will be rated 3lbs higher this year but he is as good, if not better, than ever judged on his last run, when a rapidly- staying-on fifth to Saint Lawrence in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot. That race last month was over six furlongs and the horse is even better over seven furlongs as he gets older.
I love the fact that Fresh is not ground dependent – anything from ‘soft’ to ‘good to firm’ is fine for him – making him ideal candidate for an ante-post bet. Back him 1 point each at 12-1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power or Betfair, all paying five places. There will be more places available on the day in this big-field contest but I doubt that he will be a double-figure price come 29 July, as this horse simply loves Ascot’s straight course, especially when regular pilot Danny Tudhope is in the saddle. In fact, William Hill is already as short at 7-1 on Fresh for the race and, given his excellent course from, I can see why.
As always, good luck for the weekend’s betting and beyond.
2023 flat season running total: – 10.23 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Ouzo for the Coral Challenge at 15/2, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
1 point each way Onesmoothoperator for the Old Newton Cup at 11-1, paying 1/5th odds, six places.
1 point each way Sonny Liston at 20-1 for the John Smith’s Cup Handicap, paying ¼ odds, four places.
1 point each way Fresh at 12-1 for the Moet & Chandon International Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, five places
Settled bets:
1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 17/2 in the 2000 Guineas, 1/5 odds, paying four places. 3rd. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Call My Bluff at 4-1 in the Chester Cup, paying six places, 1/5th odds. 3rd. – 0.2 points.
1 point each way Safe Voyage at 12-1 in the Victoria Cup, paying seven places, 1/5th odds. 5th. + 1.4 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 6-1 in the Connect It Utility Services Handicap
Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Royal Acclaim at 6-1 in the Temple Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 point.
1 point each way Sprewell at 10-1 for the Derby paying 1/5 odds, five places. 4th. + 1 point.
1 point each way Arrest at 4-1 for the Derby, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points. 2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 12-1 for the Epsom Dash, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Twilight Calls at 16-1 for the King’s Stand Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 4th but Rule 4 deduction of 15p in the £. + 1.97 points.
2 points win Royal Scotsman at 14-1 for the St James’s Palace Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Zoffee at 14-1 for the Ascot Stakes, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Chillingham at 22-1 for the Copper Horse Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. 4th. + 3.4 points.
1 point each way Tarrabb at 10-1 for the Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. 3rd. + 1 point.
1 point each way Point Lynas at 33-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Atrium at 20-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Circle of Fire at 13/2 for the Queen’s Vase, paying 1/5th odds, four places. 4th. + 0.3 points.
2 points win Yibir at 11-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rhoscolyn at 22-1 for the Buckingham Palace Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Physique at 40-1 for the Britannia Stakes, paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lezoo at 9-1 for the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Chelsea Green at 12-1 for the Sandringham Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, eight places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Pyledriver at 15/2 for the Hardwicke Stakes. 1st but Rule 4 deduction of 30p in the £. + 9.9 points.
1 point each way Apollo One at 16-1 for the Wokingham Stakes, 1/5th odds, paying eight places. 2nd. + 2.2 points.
1 point each way Zoffee at 20-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 points each way Adjuvant at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/5th odds, six places. 5th. + 0.3 points.
1 point each way Sprewell at 7-1 for the Irish Derby, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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