The Arab world still wants peace with Israel

As Israeli forces continue to pound Gaza in retaliation for Hamas’s atrocity, and TV images of dying civilian Palestinians flood the airwaves, some are worried that regional peace with Israel is dead. Such talk makes militants, from Tehran to Gaza, proud. They hope war will bring an end to Israel’s ‘normalisation’ and detente with Saudi Arabia, and halt the ground-breaking Abraham Accords. The reality, however, is more complex. It’s too soon to write off Arab-Israeli peace efforts – even amid the carnage of Gaza.

Before 7 October, the buds of peace were quietly sprouting, because it was in the interests of both sides, Arab and Israeli, for this to happen. These interests – including the desire for genuine stability and thriving and prosperous societies fuelled by a more integrated Middle East driven by trade and a growing middle class – have not changed.

Israel’s focus is, for now of course, on its war with Gaza. The ferocity of Hamas’s assault, claiming the lives of around 1,400 largely defenceless Israeli civilians in a single day, a toll not seen since the harrowing days of the Holocaust, sent shockwaves through the nation, rekindling Jewish fears. Israel’s response, marked by an unprecedented display of military might, has transformed swathes of Gaza into debris, claiming thousands of civilian lives, with children bearing a hefty toll. Both the initial assault by Hamas and Israel’s ensuing reprisal have further entrenched divisions within their respective societies.

On the Arab front, the Palestine issue is back on the front pages and lead stories of news shows, a place it has not held for more than a decade. The situation would seem ripe for chest-thumping Arab leaders, playing to the gallery, denouncing Israel and ripping up peace or normalisation agreements. The fact is, though, that this has not happened.

While Egypt neither recalled its ambassador to Israel nor expelled the Israeli ambassador, Jordan opted to withdraw its own envoy from Israel and instructed the already-departed Israeli ambassador to stay away. This action seems relatively restrained, particularly in light of the current events’ enormity and Jordan’s population, which is predominantly Palestinian. The Abraham Accords, too, hold firm; the UAE and Bahrain remained steadfast on their normalisation stance with Israel. Abu Dhabi condemned Hamas. UAE’s president Mohammed Bin Zayed, known as MBZ, reached out to Bashar Assad at the onset of hostilities, ensuring Syria would not get involved. 

Morocco’s relations with Israel have remained formally the same. On the brink of normalisation, Saudi Arabia hesitated to shut that door. The country’s de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, known as MBS, spoke of the need to ‘retrieve the path of peace’, one that honours Palestinian rights. The Saudi press, meanwhile, has displayed a clear distaste for the conflict and pointed the finger at Hamas.

During a fundraiser last month, US president Joe Biden suggested that the events of 7 October may have been intended to derail Saudi-Israel normalisation: ‘I was about to sit down with the Saudis,’ Biden said, and ‘the Saudis wanted to recognise Israel.’ But if there is one thing we can glean about MBS, his vision is a long-term one; it isn’t dictated by daily headlines. If Saudi Arabia was on the verge of normalisation with Israel before 7 October, this suggests that the Crown Prince saw this as beneficial to the Kingdom’s dramatic transformation plans and the peace and stability of the region. That calculation has not changed. While the timing may have been derailed, the core drivers of Saudi-Israel normalisation has not. 

For the Saudis and Emiratis, peace with Israel remains a strategic choice for regional stability and economic growth. Such a breakthrough would also provide them with another benefit, in weakening Islamist jihadist organisations like Hamas. The Emiratis and Saudis hope that by silencing the radicals, they can continue to build a conducive environment for their ambitious economic diversification plans while moving past the oil era. 

Saudi finance minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan spelled out this thinking clearly last week in remarks at a investment summit in Riyadh:

‘Before 7 October, a lot of de-escalation has happened, which brought a lot of hope for the region. We don’t want the recent events to derail that so we are making a lot of efforts with our partners to make sure we go back to where we were.’

For Israel, too, peace with the region has its benefits. The rapid growth in Israel-UAE trade since the Abraham Accords, the airline flights between Israel and some Gulf Arab states, and the announced investments in Israeli infrastructure by UAE funds has bolstered Israel at a time of domestic political turmoil.

War with Gaza is already taking a heavy economic toll on Israel, which stands on the precipice of cuts by the key credit ratings agencies. Prolonged and escalated conflict will also hit Israel’s tourism industry, as well as a wide range of other industries tied to foreign investment, hard. Israel had no choice but to retaliate militarily. But war will cost the country dearly, not just in terms of human lives. A semblance of peace is the only long-term solution.

The heightened urgency for a two-state solution, underscored by the grim realities of war, has never been more apparent in recent years than now. Seizing this moment from the wreckage of today’s conflict demands a unified endeavour from all sides: American, Arab, and Israeli. For far too long, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict had been relegated to the diplomatic back burner – until the latest fire engulfed us all.

Once the flames have been extinguished, it will be vital to move quickly toward a comprehensive two state solution. Given the diminishing efficacy of the Palestinian Authority and the non-negotiable stance regarding Hamas’s inclusion in any future political solution, Arab nations – Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain – are tasked with finding a trustworthy Palestinian entity to steer Palestine in the post-war era. Israelis, on the other hand, can use the unavoidable end of Benjamin Netanyahu’s reign, along with the dissolution of his extremist coalition, to forge a robust political centre conducive to compromise. 

As Hamas’s reign ends, there is hope for Gaza. American mediation, supplemented by a substantial financial commitment from Saudi Arabia and UAE can not only rejuvenate Gaza, but also establish a foundation for its evolution into a functioning, well-managed state. Given its enviable geographic location and long coastline and access to a talented Palestinian diaspora, Gaza has the ability to emerge as a significant economic entity. Over the long run, with the right leadership, there is no reason why Gaza could not follow the model of Singapore or the UAE toward rapid economic development.

To get there, Palestinians must confront a series of unpalatable choices. It’s imperative for them to transcend the entrenched dogma that occupation alone is the problem. Gaza, fully liberated since 2005 with all settlements dismantled, has cascaded into conflict, while the partially occupied West Bank remained relatively aloof from the fighting. This shows, all too clearly that, while occupation is ‘a’ problem, it is not ‘the’ problem. Palestinians need to face the reality that internal schisms, subpar governance, and susceptibility to regional agendas have contributed to their plight.

On the Israeli side, similarly, while terrorism is ‘a’ concern, it’s not ‘the’ core problem obstructing peace. The West Bank, despite being governed by an entity with a nominal commitment to peace, remains far from the envisaged tranquil environment. Illegal Jewish settlement activities don’t help matters by inflaming tensions between Israelis and Palestinians.

It will be an uphill battle for both the Palestinians and Israelis, along with the rest of the region and the wider western world, to find a path forward. There are gigantic roadblocks on the pathway to achieving comprehensive peace. Yet if the Gaza war shows anything, it is surely that neither the scourge of terror nor overwhelming military might can usher in stability, prosperity and peace.

Palestinians should not harbour illusions regarding the current surge in public opinion; the empathy for the misery and pain endured is palpable, yet transient. The world has its own quagmire of problems – from job scarcity, AI disruptions, to environmental exigencies – to deal with.

Israelis should know that Western attention will eventually diminish, leading to public exhaustion that may soon test the limits of patience among Israel’s Western allies. If there is a lesson from the war, it will be that peace between Palestine and Israel in the form of a comprehensive two state solution and new normalisation agreements is the only sustainable path forward. Hamas killed 1,400 Israelis on 7 October and Israel has killed several thousand in subsequent air strikes. It is vital this war does not kill peace prospects too.