Which Tory seats would survive a Labour landslide?

According to the polls, the Conservative party are heading for a landslide defeat at the next election. The Daily Telegraph this week published a mammoth YouGov survey of 14,000 people which forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority. This would mean that more than half the Conservative parliamentary party would be wiped out: a bigger loss in seats than the 1997 disaster.

Below is a list of the 169 seats forecast to stay blue in the Telegraph/MRP poll under the revised boundary changes. According to YouGov, ‘notional results calculations allow us to see what the outcome in each seat would have been if the last election had used those boundaries, and therefore which seats would be changing hands.’ Of the 169 seats, 141 would be represented by sitting MPs. The remaining 28 have new candidates; all but seven of these have now been selected.

1. Aldershot – Leo Docherty
2. Aldridge-Brownhills – Wendy Morton
3. Amber Valley – Nigel Mills
4. Arundel and South Downs – Andrew Griffith
5. Ashford – Damian Green
6. Basildon and Billericay – new candidate
7. Beaconsfield – Joy Morrissey
8. Beverley and Holderness – Graham Stuart
9. Bexhill and Battle – Huw Merriman
10. Bognor Regis and Littlehampton – new candidate
11. Boston and Skegness – Matt Warman
12. Bracknell – James Sunderland
13. Braintree – James Cleverly
14. Brentwood and Ongar – Alex Burghart
15. Bridgwater – Ashley Fox (new candidate)
16. Bridlington and The Wolds – Charlie Dewhirst (new candidate)
17. Brigg and Immingham – Martin Vickers
18. Broadland and Fakenham – Jerome Mayhew
19. Bromsgrove – Bradley Thomas (new candidate)
20. Broxbourne – Lewis Cocking (new candidate)
21. Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket – Jo Churchill
22. Cannock Chase – Amanda Milling
23. Castle Point – Rebecca Harris
24. Central Devon – Mel Stride
25. Central Suffolk and North Ipswich – Dan Poulter
26. Chatham and Aylesford – New candidate
27. Chelmsford – Vicky Ford
28. Chesham and Amersham – Gareth Williams (new candidate)
29. Chester South and Eddisbury – Aphra Brandreth (new candidate)
30. Christchurch – Christopher Chope
31. Clacton – Giles Watling
32. Congleton – Fiona Bruce
33. Daventry – Chris Heaton-Harris
34. Derbyshire Dales – Sarah Dines
35. Droitwich and Evesham East – Nigel Huddleston
36. Grinstead and Uckfield – Mims Davies
37. East Hampshire –Damian Hinds
38. East Surrey –Claire Coutinho
39. East Wiltshire – Danny Kruger
40. Epping Forest – Eleanor Laing
41. Exmouth and Exeter East – David Reed (new candidate)
42. Fareham and Waterlooville – Suella Braverman
43. Faversham and Mid Kent – Helen Whatley
44. Finchley and Golders Green – Mike Freer
45. Folkestone and Hythe – Damian Collins
46. Forest of Dean – Mark Harper
47. Fylde – Mark Menzies
48. Gainsborough – Edward Leigh
49. Goole and Pocklington – David Davis
50. Gosport – Caroline Dineage
51. Grantham and Bourne – Gareth Davies
52. Great Yarmouth – Brandon Lewis
53. Hamble Valley – Paul Holmes
54. Harborough, Oadby and Wigston – Neil O’Brien
55. Harwich and North Essex – Bernard Jenkin
56. Havant – Alan Mak
57. Hereford and South Herefordshire – New candidate
58. Herne Bay and Sandwich – Roger Gale
59. Hertford and Stortford – Julie Marson
60. Hertsmere – Oliver Dowden
61. Hinckley and Bosworth – Luke Evans
62. Hitchin – Bim Afolami
63. Honiton and Sidmouth – Simon Jupp
64. Hornchurch and Upminster – Julia Lopez
65. Huntingdon – Benjamin Obese-Jecty (new candidate)
66. Kenilworth and Southam – Jeremy Wright
67. Kingswinford and South Staffordshire – Mike Wood
68. Lichfield – Michael Fabricant
69. Louth and Horncastle – Victoria Atkins
70. Maidenhead – Theresa May
71. Maidstone and Malling – Helen Grant
72. Maldon – John Whittingdale
73. Melksham and Devizes – Michelle Donelan
74. Melton and Syston – Ed Argar
75. Meriden and Solihull East – Saqib Bhatti
76. Mid Bedfordshire – New candidate
77. Mid Buckinghamshire – Greg Smith
78. Mid Derbyshire – Luke Gardiner (new candidate)
79. Mid Leicestershire – Peter Bedford (new candidate)
80. Mid Norfolk – George Freeman
81. Mid Sussex – Kristy Adams (new candidate)
82. New Forest East – Julian Lewis
83. New Forest West – Desmond Swayne
84. Newark – Robert Jenrick
85. Newton Abbot – Anne Marie Morris
86. North Bedfordshire – Richard Fuller
87. North Cotswolds – Geoffrey Clifton-Brown
88. North Dorset – Simon Hoare
89. North East Cambridgeshire – Steve Barclay
90. North East Hampshire – Ranil Jayawardena
91. North East Hertfordshire – Oliver Heald
92. North East Somerset and Hanham – Jacob Rees-Mogg
93. North Herefordshire – Bill Wiggin
94. North Norfolk – Duncan Baker
95. North Northumberland – Anne-Marie Trevelyan
96. North Shropshire – Simon Baynes
97. North Somerset – Liam Fox
98. North West Cambridgeshire – Shailesh Vara
99. North West Essex – Kemi Badenoch
100. North West Hampshire – Kit Malthouse
101. North West Leicestershire – Craig Smith (new candidate)
102. North West Norfolk – James Wild
103. Old Bexley and Sidcup – Louie French
104. Orpington – Gareth Bacon
105. Poole – Robert Syms
106. Rayleigh and Wickford –Mark Francois
107. Reading West and Mid Berkshire – New candidate
108. Reigate – Rebecca Paul (new candidate)
109. Richmond and Northallerton – Rishi Sunak
110. Romsey and Southampton North – Caroline Nokes
111. Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner – David Simmonds
112. Runnymede and Weybridge – Ben Spencer
113. Rutland and Stamford – Alicia Kearns
114. Salisbury – John Glen
115. Sevenoaks – Laura Trott
116. Sittingbourne and Sheppey – Aisha Cuthbert (new candidate)
117. Skipton and Ripon – Julian Smith
118. Sleaford and North Hykeham – Caroline Johnson
119. Solihull West and Shirley – New candidate
120. South Basildon and East Thurrock – Stephen Metcalfe
121. South Cotswolds – New candidate
122. South Devon – Anthony Mangnall
123. South Dorset – Richard Drax
124. South East Cornwall – Sheryll Murray
125. South Holland and The Deepings – John Hayes
126. South Leicestershire – Alberto Costa
127. South Norfolk – Poppy Simister-Thomas (new candidate)
128. South Northamptonshire – Andrea Leadsom
129. South Shropshire – Stuart Anderson
130. South Suffolk – James Cartlidge
131. South West Devon – Rebecca Smith (new candidate)
132. South West Hertfordshire – Gagan Mohindra
133. South West Norfolk – Liz Truss
134. South West Wiltshire – Andrew Murrison
135. Spelthorne – Kwasi Kwarteng
136. St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire – Anthony Browne
137. Staffordshire Moorlands – Karen Bradley
138. Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge – Gavin Williamson
139. Stratford-on-Avon – Nadhim Zahawi
140. Suffolk Coastal – Thérèse Coffey
141. Surrey Heath – Michael Gove
142. Sussex Weald – Nus Ghani
143. Sutton and Cheam – Paul Scully
144. Sutton Coldfield – Andrew Mitchell
145. Tamworth – Eddie Hughes
146. Tatton – Esther McVey
147. Tewkesbury – Laurence Robertson
148. Thirsk and Malton – Kevin Hollinrake
149. Tiverton and Minehead – Ian Liddell-Grainger
150. Tonbridge – Tom Tugendhat
151. Torbay – Kevin Foster
152. Torridge and Tavistock – Geoffrey Cox
153. Tunbridge Wells – Greg Clark
154. Waveney Valley – Richard Rout (new candidate)
155. Weald of Kent – Katie Lam (new candidate)
156. Wells and Mendip Hills – James Heappey
157. West Suffolk – Nick Timothy (new candidate)
158. West Worcestershire –Harriet Baldwin
159. Wetherby and Easingwold – Alec Shelbrooke
160. Windsor – Jack Rankin (new candidate)
161. Witham – Priti Patel
162. Witney – Robert Courts
163. Wyre Forest – Mark Garnier
164. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – John Lamont
165. Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – David Duguid
166. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – David Mundell
167. Gordon and Buchan – Harriet Cross (new candidate)
168. Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe – Fay Jones
169. Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr – Craig Williams