North Korea won’t build bridges with Japan any time soon

Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korea’s Supreme Leader, is back. This time, though, Kim Jong Un’s sister doesn’t seem her usual vitriolic self – at least at first glance.

Earlier this week, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida offered an olive branch to the North Korean leader, outlining his willingness to engage in talks with him to resolve an issue that has plagued relations between the two countries for several decades. Given North Korea’s lack of desire to engage in talks, apart from with Russia or China, it was surprising that Kim Yo Jong reciprocated with an offer of her own. Highlighting the possibility for Japan and North Korea to ‘open a new future’, the sister even raised the possibility of a visit by the Japanese prime minister to Pyongyang.

At first glance, this seems an almighty U-turn. Seven years ago, a report from a North Korean state agency threatened to ‘sink’ Japan after Tokyo supported UN sanctions against the hermit kingdom for conducting nuclear tests. The year before, President Trump had also suggested that Japan and South Korea should acquire their own nuclear weapons.

But Miss Kim’s latest remarks do not signify a departure from North Korea’s previous stance. She stressed how any reconciliation hinged upon Japan ending its ‘anachronistic hostility’ towards the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Importantly, she also made clear how for now, the North’s leadership – a wheel in which she remains a key cog – has ‘no interest’ in any negotiations.

The bumpy relations between Japan and North Korea stem from the North’s resentment at Japan’s annexation of the formerly-united Korean Peninsula in the years before the First World War. However, during the Cold War years of the 1970s and 1980s, long before North Korea had any nuclear weapons, missiles, or delivery systems of its own, the hermit kingdom began to engage in bad behaviour of another sort.

In addition to attempting to assassinate South Korean presidents, North Korea was gaining notoriety for forcibly abducting Japanese citizens from Japan to North Korea, with the aim gathering intelligence. The kidnapped individuals were promised a ‘socialist paradise’ upon arrival in the North. The reality, though, was far from it. Instead, the North Korean regime, then-led by Kim Il Sung, exploited these men and women to obtain their identities, marry them to North Koreans, and train North Korean agents in Japanese language and culture. Whilst some abductees died, the fate of many others remains unknown. Although a meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and the Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2002 saw the second North Korean leader offer a pithy apology for Pyongyang’s actions, it failed to cut the mustard with the Japanese public.

The ‘abduction issue’ remains engrained in the memory of the Japanese population, a fact not missed by Kim Yo Jong. She decried it as a ‘stumbling block’ for any improved relations – she is not wrong.

Since the issue continues to resonate with the Japanese people, and with North Korea unwilling to disclose the full truth, it is no surprise that successive administrations in Tokyo have raised the subject during bilateral and multilateral negotiations. For all his diplomatic overtures towards Kim Jong Un, however, it seems unlikely that Kishida will depart from this trend. What is more, Tokyo remains committed to its alliance with Washington, to deterring Pyongyang and Beijing, mending its equally turbulent relations with Seoul and working with its Northeast Asian partners to combat common security threats.

With North Korea now launching missiles on a near-weekly basis, we must also remember that Japan, much like South Korea, is within its striking distance. In the unlikely event of any summit between the Japanese and North Korean leaders, little tangible progress would be made. North Korea’s steadfast commitment to nuclearisation stands at odds with Japan’s calls for its denuclearisation. Tokyo has also laid out its own plans to boost its conventional defence capabilities, at a time when an increased frequency of North Korean missile launches means more missiles landing in waters within Japan’s ‘exclusive economic zone’.

We should not be gullible to Kim Yo Jong’s pleasantries. Presenting an openness towards dialogue with Japan allows Miss Kim to portray herself and her country as responsible actors, particularly to domestic audiences. More broadly, her words highlight how North Korea wants to drive a wedge between Japan, South Korea, and what Pyongyang continues to call the ‘imperialistic’ United States. In warning against any ‘ulterior motive’ by Kishida, Kim hinted at how easily North Korea could rebuff any further overtures from the Japanese government if it felt that it would not benefit from engaging in dialogue. Or if Japan continues its ‘bad habits’, whether boosting ties with the US and its allies, or increasing its own cruise missile arsenal.

Ultimately, with North Korea exhibiting little to no appetite for summitry with any of its adversaries – whether South Korea, the United States, or Japan – at present, the day when any Japanese leader visits Pyongyang looks increasingly distant. Though a summit with Kim Jong Un might boost Kishida’s waning approval ratings, Japan won’t be dropping its ‘bad habits’ anytime soon.