Sunak plays it safe with his manifesto

With three weeks to go until polling day, Rishi Sunak this morning unveiled his prospectus for a Conservative government. There had been much talk that the Tory manifesto would have a big, bold policy to win back voters: perhaps the abolition of inheritance tax or maybe a referendum on the European Court of Human Rights. Such measures though were rejected in favour of a more modest tax reduction.

With most of the manifesto briefed in advance, the headline-grabbing measure from today’s launch is the news that the Conservatives will abolish National Insurance contributions for the self-employed by the end of the next parliament. Sunak claims that this will be worth £1,300 to the average worker in a clear pitch to Essex’s white van man.

Launching the document, Sunak made much of the measures that have already been reported, like the income tax cuts for pensioners and 2p off the rate of national insurance. But in the subsequent Q&A a succession of disappointed journalists asked the Prime Minister whether the offer amounted to being too little, too late. Sunak countered by noting the succession of announcements that have peppered the Tory campaign to date. He contrasted his own ‘bold’ national service announcement with the offer from Keir Starmer: ‘There is nothing comparable to that from the Labour party.’ All that is on offer from Labour is ‘a blank sheet of paper’, he declared, as he sought, once again, to frame this as a two-horse race.

To borrow from Donald Rumsfeld, this election then is being pitched by the Tories as between Sunak’s ‘known knowns’ and Keir Starmer’s ‘unknown knowns’ – a risk of which voters ought to be aware. He also sought to embrace the entirety of the past 14 years of government, praising the record of Tory Home Secretaries ‘from Theresa to Priti to James’. It was a marked contrast with his last conference speech when he spoke of ending the ’30-year status quo.’ 

For the entire 20 months of his premiership, Rishi Sunak has cycled through a variety of measures to try to move the polls – but with only very limited success. His speech today then was a recognition of the fact that he is not going to be able to turn around a 20-point deficit with three weeks to go. Instead, it was a careful, credible pitch to that minority of voters who have not yet made up their minds about the Tories. The slight air of disappointment in some quarters ought to at least blunt Labour’s attack line that today’s manifesto represented ‘the most expensive panic attack in history.’ After the blunders of the past week, Sunak and his team will be minded to take that at least as a win.

Watch more analysis from Katy Balls, Kate Andrews, and James Heale on Spectator TV: