Rumours that Emmanuel Macron could resign if Marine Le Pen wins a majority in parliament spooked French markets so much yesterday that he was forced to come out and reject the speculation. He will stay as president, he says, no matter what.
The French government will still function if Macron’s party loses more seats in parliament (where he doesn’t currently have a majority). As president, he’ll still have the prerogative over foreign policy, the power to dissolve the assembly and can call a state of emergency. So France would not sink into chaos the day after those elections – but Macron could lose the ability to set a domestic agenda if the results are poor enough.
His ministers are sounding the alarm about their opponents. Bruno Le Maire, the French finance minister, warned yesterday that the policies of Le Pen’s National Rally risk a debt crisis. Amongst the measures proposed by National Rally (RN) is a cut in VAT on electricity and gas from 20 per cent to 5.5 per cent. The party also wants to exit the European electricity market (France is the EU’s largest electricity exporter). For both Germany and Italy, French nuclear power plays an important role in balancing out their grids.
The really critical moment for Europe would be if Marine Le Pen were to be elected president in 2027. Her European agenda is truly disruptive – and could well mean the end of the EU as we know it. Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old president of Le Pen’s National Rally party, puts EU policies into three categories: green for policies that can remain at the EU level such as Erasmus; yellow for those policies that need renegotiation, such as Schengen, and red where he wants powers to be delegated to the national level (migration, energy policy, diplomacy, and defence). There might even be a referendum.
Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that Le Pen’s party wins these legislative elections and Macron appoints Bardella to form a government with ministers from his party and Les Républicans. Would this raise or lower the probability of a Len Pen victory in 2027? For this to happen, RN would have to prove itself capable in government and be able to stave off chaos inside France and with the financial markets.
Bardella has been a slick leader, able to connect with young voters on TikTok. He is a strong performer on television. Yet once in power, he will have to show what he is made of. His record as an MEP in Brussels was poor: he showed up for plenary votes but not committee meetings where legislation was discussed. As prime minister, he will have to do exactly that.
Le Pen’s RN is currently predicted to win the most parliamentary votes, but not enough for an outright majority. Eric Ciotti, the leader of Les Républicains, decided yesterday this is the moment to show unity on the right and team up with RN. That could provide Bardella with an absolute majority, especially if the group around Éric Zemmour were to join an alliance on the right. If they were to win, Macron – having called the election – would be foolish not to appoint them to lead the government. And then, we will see how much of Le Pen’s agenda will be turned into attempted action.
This article was first published in the EuroIntelligence morning briefing. For a trial subscription click here.
Comments