My favourite flat handicap of the season is the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch at Newmarket on 12 October. I have a good betting record in the race but this year the ante-post market is complicated by the fact that the brilliant Irish trainer Willie Mullins has entered no less than ten horses in the race.
As always, the Irish runners, particularly those from the Mullins yard, are likely to have a big say in the outcome of this marathon contest which is run over two miles and two furlongs, and which therefore attracts lots of dual-purpose horses with decent hurdling form.
The main problem is that Mullins keeps his cards close to his chest on his race plans and some of his best staying handicappers will go for the more valuable Friends of the Curragh Irish Cesarewitch two weekends earlier.
If I knew that Hipop De Loire was an intended runner at Newmarket, I would put him up at 10-1, but I know nothing of the kind. The seven-year-old gelding might have given Magical Zoe a race in the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap at York two weeks ago if he had not been repeatedly hampered in the last three furlongs. He looks certain to land a decent staying handicap sooner rather than later. At the very least, put him in your ‘horse tracker’ now.
At long odds, I would prefer to be on Hughie Morrison’s PREMIERE LIGNE.This five-year-old gelding was held up at the back of the field like a suspected non-stayer in the Coral Goodwood Handicap over more than two miles and four furlongs last month. However, in the event, he stayed every yard of the trip under a patient David Egan ride to be second, his third runner-up spot in as many runs.
I hope he will be ridden more prominently in the Cesarewitch now that connections know that his stamina is not an issue. Back Premiere Ligne each way at 33-1 with William Hill or Unibet, both paying four places, to give Morrison his second winner in the race after his tough mare, Sweet Selection, won the Cesarewitch for him in 2016.
Morrison is apparently considering running Premiere Ligne in the Cesarewitch trial at Newmarket later this month but I hope the five-year-old gelding will be kept fresh and will go straight for the big one. Two runs at Newmarket over such a long trip can be too much for some horses in under a month.
The weights were published this week for the other leg of the so-called ‘autumn double’, the bet365 Cambridgeshire, also at Newmarket but this time on 28 September. Over a trip of one mile and one furlong for up to 35 runners, this race is no easier to solve that the Cesarewitch.
Trainer William Haggas’s Godwinson heads the market after his recent win at Goodwood and we know that this horse handles big-field handicaps because he was second in the 21-runner OLBG Spring Cup at Newbury at the start of the season.
However, the last four winners of the Cambridgeshire were returned at Starting Prices of 20-1, 25-1 and 40-1 (twice) so I am more than happy to put up a horse at big odds.
I fancy William Knight’s DUAL IDENTITY who ran well when I tipped him up at York last time out, finishing second to stablemate Sir Busker after a slightly troubled passage. The handicapper has raised Dual Identity 3lbs for that sound run on ‘good to firm’ ground which puts him on a career-high mark of 100.
However, although this horse handles fast ground, Dual Identity is even better with some cut and that is likely by mid-October. Although he ran moderately in the Cambridgeshire last year, he ran a cracker in the race two years ago when he ‘won’ the race on his side of the track by a comfortable five lengths and was unlucky to be beaten by two horses on the favoured near side.
Back Dual Identity each way at 33-1 with either Paddy Power or Betfair, both paying five places. Other bookies are offering the same odds but with only four places. I would expect him to go off at nearer half those odds on the day.
As for tomorrow’s fare, the big race is the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock over a trip of six furlongs (3.35 p.m.). Trainer Kevin Ryan’s Inisherin is the favourite, but he was disappointing last time out at Newmarket in the Group 1 My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes, so I am happy to take him on in a 16-strong field.
Trainer Karl Burke has no less than three runners in the race all with a chance: Elite Status, the mount of stable jockey Clifford Lee; Spycather, the mount of Ryan Moore; and Swingalong, the mount of William Buick.
My fancy is the consistent and improving four-year-old filly SWINGALONG, who deserves to win a big pot. I hope that she will be ridden prominently and she may even try to steal the race from the front. If she runs to her best, I would be surprised if there are five runners in the race better than her so back her each way at 15/2 with Sky Bet, paying five places, one more place than bookies offering slightly bigger odds.
Ascot hosts an interesting card tomorrow, where the ground is now ‘soft’. I had expected to put up course specialist Rebel Territory in the bet365 Handicap (1.35 p.m.) over seven furlongs. Handler Amanda Perrett’s six-year-old gelding was 16-1 when betting opened for this race on Tuesday but, after the rain arrived, he is now around 6-1 and that’s too short for such a competitive race. So, for me at least, this contest and the rest of the card are simply races to watch and enjoy.
Pending:
1 point each way Swingalong at 15-2 for the Sprint Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dual Identity at 33-1 forthe Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Premiere Ligne at 33-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Al Riffa at 14-1 for the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, paying 1/5th odd, 3 places.
Last weekend: + 9 points.
1 point each way Doom at 10-1 for the Sky Bet Atalanta Stakes, paying 1/5th odd, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Two Tempting at 12-1 for the Livescore Bet Handicap, paying 1/5th odd, 6 places. 1st. Rule 4 deduction. + 11 points.
2024 flat season running total + 10.6 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a “point” is your chosen regular stake).
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