Scotland must push for higher defence spending

And so it seems that Scotland’s most prolific hotelier will return to the White House. Donald Trump has staged a political comeback that has torn up the normal rules of politics and sent shockwaves around the world. There are a great many reasons to be aghast at Trump’s return, but as he prepares to take up the Oval Office in just a few weeks, there is precious little time to get emotional. This is a time for hard-headedness.

Understanding the importance of the Scotland-US relationship, Scotland’s First Minister John Swinney has written to the president-elect and offered his congratulations. Bristle at this though some might, it was the right thing to do. The US is an important market for Scotland and maintaining good relations is in our national interest. Knowing that things could be about to get rocky – the First Minister has already voiced concern over the impact of potential trade tariffs on Scottish jobs – John Swinney is not about to rock the boat any more than it already has been. When we consider that Trump’s last tariff package cost the Scottish whisky industry around £600 million in under two years, this is the correct approach.

Although those outraged at the FM for congratulating president-elect Trump list all of his criminal pursuits and demagogic tendencies as reasons why Bute House should have said nothing, none of this alters the fact that he will be America’s 47th Commander-in-Chief. The Scottish government has to navigate this in a mature and sober fashion – which is why John Swinney is right to decline any invitation to participate in an emotional spasm as some appear to want him to do so. The First Minister is Scotland’s head of government, not a social worker or online personality.

And, as Swinney’s ministry considers the implications of the new administration in DC, he should do so in the context of world events. The return of Trump means Europe’s leaders must come to terms with the fact that they need to take more responsibility for defence. Gone are the days when the American backstop can be fully relied upon – meaning budgets, national security strategies and defence doctrines will need to be rewritten in capitals across our continent, including in London. Chancellor Rachel Reeves should already be assembling a top-level team of Ministry of Defence and Treasury officials to spend a minimum 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence in fairly short order.  

A meeting of European leaders in Budapest this week will be seen as the start of a long overdue period of rearmament. It has now dawned on leaders that our security can no longer be anchored in American largesse or the whims of swing voters in Pennsylvania. This is a turning point – or at least it should be.

As in Europe, so in Edinburgh. Although defence is a reserved area of policy, the Scottish government cannot stand still as the world changes around it. John Swinney should convene a meeting of Scotland’s defence industry and university leaders, with a view to supporting them as key enablers of European defence and economic growth. Industry has long been crying out for greater political support when it comes to skills, recruitment, research and development – and these are competencies that lie with Edinburgh, not London.

In 2022, Scotland’s domestic defence sector added £3.2bn to the Scottish economy. The industry employs over 33,000 Scots, including 1,500 apprentices. If the First Minister is serious about his ambition to create the best possible environment for investment, then he needs a strategy to engage with an industry that has huge growth potential. But the value of the industry isn’t just economic, it is crucial to the wider defence picture in the UK, Europe and Ukraine.

Supporting the industry is the sensible thing to do but that won’t stop the inevitable howls from Scotland’s peacenik and pacifist classes who the government should have the confidence to ignore for the simple reason that they are wrong. Whilst what is currently unfolding in Gaza is an outrage, we cannot base our defence industrial strategy on one conflict in which the UK has minimal influence. In this new era of competition between security and insecurity, voters understand what side we should be on.

Public polling shows that the current era of geopolitical anxiety has ushered in a favourable environment for an increase in defence spending and although defence couldn’t be described as a top priority for the public, they do understand its importance. Polling from 2022 shows that 73 per cent of Scots support Nato, a level of support that few other institutions enjoy.

Backing our domestic defence sector isn’t something the SNP has always found so awkward. Indeed, it’s worth remembering that one Nicola Sturgeon gained the nickname ‘nippy sweetie’ from the legendary Govan shipyard worker, Jamie Webster, when she joined him in a long campaign to save shipbuilding jobs on the Clyde.

The awkwardness that the party has towards industry today must now end. European security is something the SNP is supposed to believe in and in today’s world of war there’s no place for half-heartedness, freeloading or juvenile politics. Getting behind the 33,000 Scottish men and women who play their part in keeping us safe is good for Scotland, good for Ukraine and good for Europe. Backing our industry is an act of European solidarity and domestic national interest. It is also the right response to the capricious White House that awaits us all in 10 weeks’ time.