Cheltenham’s three-day November meeting, starting today, will take place on much faster ground that normal and so anticipate plenty of non-runners if, as expected, there is very little rain over the weekend. This is usually a meeting at which soft-ground horses have their preferred conditions but that’s definitely not the case this time.
The big race tomorrow is the Paddy Power Gold Cup (2.20 p.m.), a handicap chase over two miles four furlongs that has attracted a field of 15 runners. I had expected to put up Ga Law who I backed at tasty prices to win this very race two years ago.
However, his odds have contracted all week and a current top price of 13-2 seems short for such a competitive race even though he is guaranteed to love this quick surface. Ginny’s Destiny, trained by Paul Nicholls, is a worthy favourite and is likely to be rated far higher than his current mark of 155 by the end of the season if he is as talented as connections think he is. However, his price seems short enough too at 3-1 or less.
You won’t often find me tipping a runner from 6 lbs out of the handicap but, as always, if a horse is overpriced I am keen to back it. STRAW FAN JACK hails from the yard of Sheila Lewis in Brecon, Powys. Lewis was running her own nail salon until relatively recently but that doesn’t mean she can’t train racehorses – far from it.
She has certainly done Straw Fan Jack proud, training him to run plenty of big races including being third in the TrustATrader Plate at the Cheltenham Festival in March at odds of 28-1. Admittedly that was off a mark of 133, fully 8lbs lower that the mark he will run off tomorrow.
However, this nine-year-old grey gelding goes well fresh, he loves good ground and this race will have been the aim for most of the summer. I am hoping that, at the very least, Straw Fan Jack can run into a place. Take the 33-1 each way with Paddy Power and Sky Bet paying five places, rather than the 40-1 available with one less place.
I deliberately held off writing this column so that I could see the declarations for Cheltenham’s Sunday card, which closed this morning at 10 a.m. Sunday’s big race is the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (3.30 p.m.) which has attracted a field of 16 runners.
I have already put up Go Dante for the race ante post but my fear is that the ground is now far too quick for this horse to do himself justice. Soft or even heavy ground are probably what he needs to win a high-class handicap of this nature.
So I am going to go in again, this time knowing the likely ground conditions, and put up an outsider in the form of Nicky Richards’s runner FLORIDA DREAMS. This six-year-old gelding has been the apple of his trainer’s eye for a couple of years now.
He has won half of his eight races under rules without reaching top rank and a mark of 127 gives him a chance of landing this £56,000-plus prize for the winning connections. It’s true he only just scraped home by a short head in a modest handicap hurdle at Hexham last month but that will have been very much a prep race for tomorrow’s contest.
Florida Dreams was 33-1 earlier in the week but that price did not last long. However, he is still available at 25-1 with bet365, paying five places, and so back him each way at those odds. Teddy Blue, from the Harry Derham yard, is another outsider that might well outrun his odds but you can’t back them all.
I had intended to put up a couple more tips but the two horses in question are confirmed mudlarks so I will be patient and keep their names under my hat for another day – a much wetter day – some time in the future.
Pending:
1 point each way Straw Fan Jack at 33-1 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Go Dante at 9-1 in the Greatwood Hurdle, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Florida dreams at 25-1 in the Greatwood Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Ahoy Senor at 6-1 in the Betfair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend – 5.2 points
1 point each way All The Glory at 8-1 in the Mares’ Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Frero Banbou at 14-1 in the Grand Sefton, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Percussion at 12-1 in the Grand Sefton, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Forward Plan at 9-1 in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. 4th + 0.8 points.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 11.2 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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