GABORIOT was my fancy for last weekend’s Boylesports Becher Chase until the weather intervened and the Aintree meeting was cancelled. Joint trainers Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero have, however, wasted little time in finding their eight-year-old gelding a new target in the form of a big handicap tomorrow.
I am going to stay loyal to Gaboriot when he contests the bet365 Handicap Chase (Doncaster, 2.05 p.m.) over three miles because I think he remains leniently treated off an official mark of 128. I was impressed with his seasonal debut when third in the BoyleSports Grand Sefton Chase over Aintree’s Grand National fences. That was over a totally inadequate distance of two miles and five furlongs because I imagine he will be at his best over a trip a whole mile further, given he has winning form over four miles.
Tomorrow’s 15-runner contest for a first prize of just over £26,000 looks to be even more competitive than the Becher would have been and so odds of 5-1 or less are not over-generous. However, I think connections both expect him to win and need him to win – if he is going to contest some of the big staying handicaps, including the Grand National itself, later in the season, then he will need a much higher official rating.
Forward Plan and Does He Know are among the dangers at the front of the market but don’t be surprised if Straw Fan Jack outruns his odds of around 25-1. His seasonal debut in a red-hot running of the Paddy Power Gold Cup last month was disappointing but he ran some good races last season, notably when third at the Cheltenham Festival in the TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase. However, on balance, I will stay at just the one bet in the race: 1 point each way Gaboriot at 5-1 with bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral or BetVictor, all paying four places.
I have already suggested one bet in the Nyetimber December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Cheltenham 1.50 p.m.) and Madara could go off favourite and at approaching half the 8-1 price that I put him up last week. Expect him to be ridden more prominently than he was in the Paddy Power Gold Cup now that he has showed the trip of two and a half miles holds no fears.
However, I think there is another good bet in the same race at the odds in the form of Alan King’s GRANDEUR D’AME. At first glance, it was hard to work up enthusiasm for his chances as he runs off the same official rating of 136 as he did in last year’s race when he was comfortably beaten into fourth place.
However, both the horse and his trainer are in much better form that 12 months ago. After winning on his seasonal debut at Chepstow in October, which has turned out to be really strong form, this eight-year-old gelding was put away for this race because he goes well fresh. ‘I think he’s a better horse now,’ said the trainer in his Racing Post Weekender column this week. ‘He’s certainly working like one and he’s in a good place at present.’
Back Grandeur d’Ame one point each way at 9-1 with bet65, paying four places. Fugitif is well handicapped and might just repeat his win in this race a year ago but he would ideally like the ground to be softer whereas, in fact, it is drying out all the time.
I will put up one more bet for tomorrow this time in the BetMGM Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (Cheltenham, 3.35 p.m.), with 13 runners due to take their chances in a race run over a distance of just over two and a half miles.
Earlier in the week, in-form jockey Ben Jones had been booked to ride ENDLESS ESCAPE for Dorset handler Ben Clarke. However, it looks like he then received a better offer in the form of Georgi Girl for joint trainers Philip Hobbs and Johnson White so he has switched horses. Already a winner this season and with four wins from just 11 starts, Georgi Girl clearly has a big chance of landing the spoils.
However, at double the odds, I prefer to back Endless Escape, who clearly needed her seasonal debut at Ascot over an inadequate trip. She ran on well from the second last that day to be beaten just over 12 lengths in fifth place and this longer trip is much more what she needs.
Furthermore, she has strong form in the book at Cheltenham from late last season. With Harry Kimber now booked for the ride, back Endless Escape 1 point each way at 12-1 with bet365, William Hill or Paddy Power, all paying four places.
Pending:
1 point way Madara at 8-1 for the December Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point way Grandeur d’Ame at 9-1 for the December Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point way Gaboriot at 5-1 for the bet365 Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point way Endless Escape at 12-1 for the BetMGM Mares’ Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Monbeg Genius at 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Last weekend: quits
1 point each way Gaboriot at 10-1 for the Becher Chase, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Meeting and bet cancelled.
1 point each way Iron Bridge at 15-2 for the Becher Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Meeting and bet cancelled.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 15.3 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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