The entries for the Cheltenham Festival handicaps races were announced this week and so now seems a good time to try to steal a little value from bookmakers, with the four days of elite jump racing just around the corner next month.
We still don’t yet know the weights that each horse has been allotted for these races but, in most cases, that’s fairly easy to predict given that official ratings for every horse on both sides of the Irish Sea are updated weekly. As usual, the British handicapper is going to give several of the Irish-based horses a slightly higher rating – and therefore weight – than his Irish counterpart.
As usual too, the bookmakers are not giving much away, whether they are betting on normal ante-post terms (which means there is no return of stakes for any non-runners) or whether they are betting, offering slightly shorter odds, Non-Runner No Bet (NRNB).
Irish trainer Gavin Cromwell looks to have a pretty strong hand in several of the handicaps and I like the chances of his horse PATH D’OROUX in one of the Festival’s newly-created races, the Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase, on 13 March.
Despite some big runs last season over chases, including being third in last year’s Grand Annual at the Festival, Path d’Oroux remains a novice at eight years old due to his lack of wins over the larger obstacles.
According to his trainer, Path d’Oroux is likely to step up in trip next month for the Jack Richards race rather than race again over the minimum trip by lining up for the Grand Annual again.
Although the horse is fairly exposed, the extra half mile could be the making of him and I like the fact that he has much more jumping experience than almost all of his likely rivals. However, as he has two other Festival entries other than for the Jack Richards, back him at 25-1 NRNB with Ladbrokes or Coral, both paying four places. Some bookies are offering shorter odds, but more places.
In the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase on 12 March, Cromwell’s horse Stumptown is already as short as 2-1 with the bookies and that looks terrible value. Yes, he was impressive when winning over this quirky course and distance in December but he will take a hefty rise in the ratings – probably 8lb – for that cosy victory.
The horse behind him that day was Mister Coffey, who always finds a way of not winning, so my preference is for LATENIGHTPASS, who was third that day, beaten just over four lengths.
He is now a 12-year-old gelding and I am prepared to forgive him his ‘UR’ – Unseated Rider – last time out when he stumbled at the very first fence and unshipped regular jockey Gina Andrews. He is usually the safest of jumpers.
In fact, he won this race two years ago off a slightly lower mark when trained by Dan Skelton. Back Latenightpass each way at 16-1 with bet365, paying four places. Those odds are without NRNB but this race is his only Festival target and so, bar injury or illness, he will run in it.
I am happy to back a real outsider in the William Hill County Hurdle on the final day of the Festival (14 March) even though OUR CHAMP is ground dependent and needs a good surface to be at his best. He didn’t get decent ground last time out when eighth in the William Hill Hurdle at Newbury on soft ground.
However, if he gets his preferred terrain, he can be competitive off a rating of 135 and his trainer Chris Gordon is keeping the faith that this seven-year-old gelding can still be competitive in this sort of contest. Back Our Champ each way at 66-1 with Ladbrokes or Coral, both offering NRNB, four places. If the rain arrives, I hope the astute Gordon will swerve the race with his horse and wait for another day.
In recent weeks, I have already put up four bets in the handicaps including two wagers on day one, 11 March – first of all, Liam Swagger each way at 33-1 in the ‘Boodles’, registered as the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. He will have his prep run for the Festival on the flat at Southwell later today.
Secondly, I tipped Haiti Couleurs win only at 8-1 for the National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase and he is now vying for favouritism. However, in the same race I want to go in double handed with trainer Neil Mulholland’s strong stayer, TRANSMISSION.
As with Haiti Couleurs, the horse’s handler protected his handicap mark over chases by racing him over hurdles last time out. But this race has been very much the plan for some time which is why all four runs for the horse this season have been at Cheltenham.
Back Transmission each way at 12-1 with bet365, paying five places, once again ignoring the NRNB concession in search of better odds.
So that’s eight bets in all, including Storm Heart win only NRNB for two different races, put up ante-post for the handicaps at odds ranging from as short as 8-1 to as long as 66-1.
As for tomorrow’s fare, the Virgin Bet Eider Handicap Chase (2.10 p.m.) at Newcastle over 4 miles 2 furlongs is never a race for the faint of heart, whether for horse or jockey. However, this year, the ground is better than usual at ‘good to soft’. With no real rain forecast before the off, there should be more finishers than usual.
With 18 runners lining up, it is very competitive but my preference, now that her stable is in better form, is for Lucinda Russell’s tough gelding YOUR OWN STORY,who will have no trouble staying the marathon trip provided he can keep in touch with the field early on.
True, he hasn’t won for nearly two years, but he is pretty consistent. Back Your Own Story each way at 20-1 with bet365, paying five places. He is 16-1 or shorter with other bookies. Happy punting, as always.
Last weekend: – 5.5 points.
1 point each way Patriotik at 15-2 for the Betfair Exchange Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Annsam at 8-1 Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Highstakesplayer at 12-1 Betfair Swinley Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Apple Away at 17-2 for Grand National Trial Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 0.5 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Your Own Story at 20-1 for the Eider Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way July Flower at 11-1 for the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Liam Swagger at 33-1 for the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
2 points win Haiti Couleurs at 8-1 for the National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase.
1 point each way Transmission at 12-1 for the National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Sixmilebridge at 16-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Latenightpass at 16-1 for the Cross Country Chase, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Djelo at 16-1 for Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Ahoy Senor at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Path d’Oroux at 25-1 for the Jack Richards Novices’ Chase , paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
2 points win Storm Heart at 12-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup.
1 point each way Galileo Dame at 16-1 NRNB for the Triumph Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
2 points win Storm Heart at 10-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle.
1 point each way Our Champ at 66-1 for the County Hurdle, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Kandoo Kid at 33-1 for the Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 29.26 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Comments