How to fight Ukip

In the 2005 general election this magazine supported the Conservatives, with one exception — we urged voters in Medway not to vote for a deeply unimpressive Tory candidate by the name of Mark Reckless. Our then political editor, Peter Oborne, went so far as to write a pamphlet in support of the Labour rival, Bob Marshall Andrews, who had a commendable record of sticking it to Tony Blair. Reckless, by contrast, had nothing to commend him. He lost by just 213 votes — suggesting that The Spectator’s intervention had been decisive.

But nothing, it seems, will prevent Reckless from being elected as Ukip’s second MP in two weeks’ time. The Ukip momentum in Rochester & Strood now looks unstoppable. The European Union is giving Ukip plenty of help, presenting Britain with a £1.7 billion bill in punishment for having the fastest-growing economy in the continent. In protesting so loudly against this, David Cameron makes Nigel Farage’s point very clearly: Britain is trapped in an unfair system.

It is strange to think that only a few weeks ago, the Tories were confident about keeping hold of Rochester & Strood. They had been blindsided by Douglas Carswell’s defection to Ukip, and unable to organise themselves in time to hold Clacton; in any case, his constituency was ideal territory for Ukip. Rochester, they thought, was different. Mark Reckless’s is a Tory safe seat, and he has none of Carswell’s eloquence or popularity. Most Conservatives were reluctant to campaign too hard against Carswell, but many were keen to crush Reckless — and, hopefully, mark the beginning of the end of Nigel Farage.

But to the great surprise of No. 10, it turns out that voters in Rochester are not very interested in joining the Tory fightback. Even Cabinet members are returning from Rochester with the sense that the battle is already lost.