Well, well, well. Sir Keir Starmer’s big immigration speech on Monday prompted accusations the Prime Minister was trying to ‘out-Reform Reform’ – but if this is the case, it doesn’t seem to be working. A new survey by political advisory firm True North has recorded the highest vote share to date for Farage’s party in a Westminster opinion poll, with 30 per cent of Brits backing Reform. Will the surge ever stop?
The UK-wide poll, carried out between 2-5 May, put Labour five points behind Farage’s crowd on 25 per cent, while Kemi Badenoch’s boys in blue are lagging on 18 per cent. The Lib Dems are on 13 per cent while 7 per cent of Brits backed the Greens. The figures suggest the Reform would end up with 334 MPs while Labour would fall to 150 – while the Tories would manage just 23. Good heavens…
The data was collected in the aftermath of the local elections and Reform’s victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, where the party picked up another MP – and their first female parliamentarian. Farage’s party swept to victory at the start of the month, seeing their candidates elected in the new mayoralties and winning over 670 council seats. To add insult to injury for Labour, analysis by Electoral Calculus of the May elections suggests that Nigel Farage’s party could elect 81 MPs across the areas that voted in the recent council polls – and even oust current Net Zero Secretary and veteran politician Ed Miliband. Oo er.
In a look ahead to next year, recent polling has suggested that Reform could become the biggest opposition party in both the Welsh and Scottish parliaments by splitting the unionist vote. Ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe may have branded Farage a 'viper' and warned voters not to let his become the party of government, but whether this will dent support is another matter. 'The only saving grace for Farage's opponents is that the next general election,' True North's Calum Ross remarked, 'is likely to be several years away. However unless something changes the rise and rise of Reform looks set to shape the debate every day until then.' Indeed.
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