It is a year next week since the general election and Labour is marking the occasion with the biggest backbench rebellion of Keir Starmer’s premiership. Overnight, scores of Starmer’s MPs have signed a reasoned amendment to the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment (PIP) Bill. This would effectively kill the Bill at its second reading next Tuesday if it passes through the Commons.
Of the 108 Labour MPs who have signed the amendment, ten are Labour select committee chairs. The key message being sent by the rebels is that these are not the so-called ‘usual suspects’ on the left of the party. Indeed, organisers made a point of adding the names of the Socialist Campaign Group last to the list, to send the message to party whips that dissatisfaction is felt across the whole party.
The government is now stuck between a rock and a hard place
The full list of names are here and they include the likes of Labour grandee Dame Meg Hillier, the respected chair of the Treasury Select Committee. There are ambitious new MPs too, like Yuan Yang. Adam Jogee and Polly Billington, plus prominent names on the so-called ‘soft left’ like Rosena Allin-Khan, Stella Creasy and Louise Haigh. They want more consultation on Liz Kendall’s reforms, which would spend an extra £1 billion on getting people back to work and reduce the eligibility for PIP.
The frustration of the rebels is obvious. Paul Foster, the new MP for South Ribble, is among those to add his name this morning. He wrote on X that he ‘attempted to engage privately and behind the scenes’ to convey his ‘deep rooted concerns’ but that he and colleagues ‘unfortunately haven’t been listened to’. In 17 years as a Labour councillor, ‘never before have I been placed in a position where I have ever had to vote against the whip. Never’. Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, is keeping her cards close to her chest on how she will instruct her MPs to vote next week.
The striking thing from the list of Labour rebels is how many have felt disrespected or sidelined by the Starmer leadership during the past five years. The fact that so many feel strongly enough to publicly break with the government, this early on, will raise questions over the parliamentary management of the ‘soft left’. As one puts it, ‘if you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes.’
The government is now stuck between a rock and a hard place. Politically, it is hard to see how the government can proceed as planned. Fiscally, it is hard to see how they cannot. The OBR expects welfare spending to reach over £100 billion by the end of this parliament. If Keir Starmer cannot trim welfare by £5 billion without wrecking his majority of 156, what chance has he got at serious reform?
The one certainty is tax rises. As Paul Johnson of the IFS noted this morning:
Another £30 billion on defence. U-turn on winter fuel. Rebellion on plans which just slightly slow huge increases in spending on disability benefits. If spending goes only one way then so, inevitably, will tax. Historic increases already this decade. Looks like a lot more to come.
Kendall told MPs last night there was ‘no route to social justice based on greater benefit spending alone’. Unfortunately for her, it appears to be an argument that is falling on deaf ears.
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