The ‘autumn double’ refers to the two big handicaps run at Newmarket in late September and mid-October. The bet365 Cambridgeshire is a cavalry charge run over a straight one mile one furlong while the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch is a test of stamina run over twice that distance.
The races could hardly be more different in nature but for generations optimistic punters have tried to land a big price double by choosing the winning horse in each contest: the former is run this year on 27 September, the latter on 11 October.
Since it is my favourite flat race handicap of the year, I will deal with the Cesarewitch first. Irish trainers have won six of the last seven runnings of the race, often with dual-purpose horses – that’s ones that run on both the flat and over jumps.
Irish maestro Willie Mullins has entered ten horses in the race of which Hipop De Loire is the shortest in the betting and poor value. Winter Fog is the best handicapped of the potential Mullins’ runners on his hurdles’ form but he is now 11 years old and surely past his best.
Tom Segal – Pricewise in the Racing Post – made a good case yesterday for how another Irish raider, Buddy One, is also extremely well handicapped, while the shrewd Irish handler Tony Martin has two interesting entries in last year’s controversial winner Alphonse Le Grande and Zanndabad.
However, my marginal preference is for DIVINE COMEDY trained at Newmarket by Harry Eustace and who has been aimed at the Cesarewitch since being unlucky in running when a close fifth in the Ascot Stakes at the royal meeting in June. That run deserves to be upgraded given she was hampered several times in the straight. The longer the distance, the better this seven-year-old mare seems to be.
I like the fact that Divine Comedy goes on all ground conditions and Eustace is a masterful target trainer. The horse ran well enough when second at Goodwood earlier this week under top weight but that would surely have simply been a prep race for the Cesarewitch. Back her one point each way at 20-1, a price available with almost all the major bookmakers, four places.
If you think it is hard to back the winner of the Cesarewitch, then the Cambridgeshire presents an even bigger challenge. There are currently 105 entries for the race and no horse is a single-figure price in the betting. Of those near the top of the market, Ed Bethell’s improver Danger Bay could run well in a race that the North Yorkshire handler loves to target.
However, the only horse I want onside at present is REAL GAIN trained by Richard Hughes and owned by Wathnan Racing. This five-year-old gelding is clearly fragile because he is so lightly raced, running only once this season when third at Glorious Goodwood in the Coral Golden Mile.
This horse has a preference for soft ground but he can handle quicker going as illustrated by the fact that he demolished an eight-strong field in a Newmarket handicap run over the same distance as the Cambridgeshire two years ago when the ground was ‘good to firm’. Back Real Gain 1 point each way at 25-1: once again that price is being offered by most big bookmakers, four places.
Turning to tomorrow’s fare, I have already put up two bets for Haydock’s Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup (3.35 p.m.): No Half Measures and Nighteyes. The forecast rain has mainly missed the course and so the ground is likely to be ‘good’ tomorrow – not ideal for either horses as both would prefer more cut. At the time of writing, Nighteyes is only first reserve for the race (stake returned if she does not make the cut).
In the Betfair Exchange Old Borough (3 p.m.), also at Haydock tomorrow, several of my favourite staying handicappers are due to line up: Caballo De Mar, Dancing In Paris and Paddy The Squire. They are all horses that have carried Penworthy’s hard-earned this season and all have a chance in this 1 mile 6 furlongs contest for a first prize of more than £50,000.
However, the horse with the best form is surely STRESSFREE for last year’s winning connections of this race. David O’Meara’s five-year-old gelding was fourth of 22 runners, beaten four lengths, in the Sky Bet Ebor Handicap at York last month despite the ground being quicker than ideal. He has been raised just l lb in the ratings to a new mark of 102.
Stressfree would ideally prefer the terrain to be soft or heavy tomorrow and that will not happen but his form on faster ground still gives him a winning chance. Back him one point each way at 8-1 with Willian Hill, paying four places.
I was expecting to put up Night Warrior in tomorrow’s Schweppes Handicap (2.40 p.m.) at Ascot. Seven furlongs on soft ground at this track should be just up his street after a luckless run when third at Glorious Goodwood in a red-hot handicap. However, Night Warrior has not been missed in the market and odds of 5-1 or less make no appeal in a 20-runner race, especially with a potentially unfavourable draw in stall 4 to contend with.
Instead, I will put up a bet for the Group 1 Royal BahrainIrish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown a week tomorrow. ANMAAAT did this blog a huge favour less than a year ago when put up at 28-1 for the Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot, duly obliging in fact at a starting price of 40-1.
Trainer Owen Burrows star gelding has been restricted to just two runs this season – second both times in top races – because of the fast ground. With plenty of rain around in Ireland next week, he should finally run for the first time since Royal Ascot in June. Even at seven years old, he is a class animal so back Anmaat 1 point each way at 7-1, a price available with most bookies offering three places.
Next Friday I will be looking at the Doncaster St Leger meeting a week tomorrow and also looking ahead to Qipco Champions Day at Ascot next month.
Pending:
1 point each way No Half Measures at 12-1 for the Sprint Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Nighteyes at 66-1 for the Sprint Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Stressfree at 8-1for the Old Borough Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Real Gain at 25-1 for the Cambridgeshire, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Divine Comedy at 20-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Anmaat at 7-1 for the Irish Champion Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 3.01 points.
2 points win Northern Express at 5-1 for the Constant Security Services Handicap. Race abandoned. Quits.
1 point each way Glenfinnan at 11-1 for the Download The BetMGM App Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 4th (but Rule 4 10p in the £ deduction). + 0.99 points.
1 point each way American Gal at 11-1 for the BetMGM Atalanta Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Two Tempting at 7-1 for the Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap. 3rd. – 2 points.
2025 flat season running total: + 88.62 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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