Trainer Jack Channon knows what it takes to win Newmarket’s bet365 Cambridgeshire (tomorrow, 3.40 p.m.) having been assistant to his father, Mick, when the stable won the race three years ago with Majestic.
Majestic, now seven and still in the yard that Channon took over from his dad at the start of last year, was 25-1 when he landed the race in 2022 and this is a race that throws up plenty of shocks. Two of the last five winners of the race returned odds of 40-1, one at 25-1 (Majestic) and another at 20-1.
Those statistics suggest that, although the two horses at the top of the market, Treble Tee and Fifth Column, have plenty in their favour, those horses’ odds of no better than 5-1 and 7-1 respectively are very skinny for this 24-runner handicap. This race is run over a straight one mile and one furlong and with the ground now ‘good to firm’.
Channon’s runner tomorrow, URBAN LION, has performed well in some big-field competitive handicaps this year and he would be much shorter in the betting if he had not thrown in a poor run at York last time out. However, not all horses take to York as a track and I will forgive him that modest run.
I am hoping that Urban Lion has a favourable draw in stall 19 – high numbers are usually favoured when the going is quick – and so back him 1 point each way at 33-1 with bet365, paying six places.
I have already put up Real Gain each way for this race at 25-1 of and, although trainer Richard Hughes’ horse would definitely prefer softer ground, he has winning course and distance form on ‘good to firm’ from two years ago. In short, that ante-post bet still looks value. If high numbers are indeed favoured tomorrow, Real Gain is nicely drawn in stall 22.
I am usually happier tipping in big-field handicaps rather than two-year-old conditions races but I am quite sweet on a horse in another Newmarket contest tomorrow, the Group 1 Tattersalls Middle Park Stakes (Newmarket 3 p.m.). It is understandable that trainer Charlie Appleby’s Wise Approach heads the market as he is the best horse in the race on official ratings.
However, there was plenty to like about the racecourse debut of Irish handler Joseph O’Brien’s THE PUBLICAN’S SON at the Curragh late last month. Sent off unfancied at 40-1 and running a little green, he finished strongly to snatch second place in a competitive Group 2 race.
The Publican’s Son does not need to improve a whole lot on that run to win tomorrow and yet he will surely step up a good bit for only his second racecourse outing. Back him 1 point each way at 5-1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power or Betfair fixed odds, all paying three places in this nine-runner race.
Finally, a slightly left-field wager on the last race at Newmarket today, the BoyleSports Handicap (4.45 p.m.). MYTHICAL GUEST looks overpriced back at his favourite course and back on quick ground, after his fairly tame fourth on soft ground at Yarmouth earlier this month.
The form of his previous run when fourth again – but this time closer to the winner in a much hotter race at York – can be upgraded as the second and third have both won since.
Back the George Margarson-trained Mythical Guest 1 point each way at 17-2 with William Hill or Betfred, both paying four places and with Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) too in this 13-runner contest. This consistent five-year-old gelding doesn’t pay many visits to the winner’s enclosure but I hope today will be one of them.
Pending:
1 point each way Mythical Guest at 17-2 (BOG) for the BoylesSport Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way The Publican’s Son at 5-1 for the Middle Park Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Real Gain at 25-1 for the Cambridgeshire, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Urban Lion at 33-1 for the Cambridgeshire, paying 1/5 odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Divine Comedy at 20-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Waardah at 8-1 for the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 3.8 points.
1 point each way Majestic Warrior at 6-1 for Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. 2nd. + 0.2 points.
1 point each way Stressfree at 9-1 for the Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Night Step at 11-2 in the Dubai Duty Free Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2025 flat season running total: + 84.82 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Comments