Sam Thomas was a talented jockey – riding Denman to victory in the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup – but he is an even better trainer. His winning strike rate with his runners is phenomenal, and this doesn’t simply come from picking off low-quality races. Thomas is never happier than plundering decent prize money at the big meetings.
This jumps’ season he has only had 30 runners yet 12 of them have won for a strike rate of 40 percent. His strike rate over the past four seasons has been at over 20 per cent which is no mean feat for any handler.
Thomas’s biggest owner is Welsh businessman Dai Walters, who understands racing inside and out. He is a dream owner, too, in that he is supportive of his trainer and patient when, inevitably, some of his string pick up injuries. Such horses never get rushed back on to the track.
One of Thomas’s leading lights is LUMP SUM, a talented novice chaser who runs tomorrow in the Betfair Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown (1.50 p.m.). Four-runner Grade 1s don’t come much more competitive than this one, with all those running having a chance.
Trainer Nicky Henderson’s Lulamba is understandably the odds-on favourite but Sandown’s stiff fences are never an easy for any horse, particularly novices, so I wouldn’t want to take odds of no better than 4-6 given the nature of the opposition.
Indeed, I would rather back Lump Sum after his impressive chase debut when the seven-year-old gelding beat Jax Junior by 16 lengths at Uttoxeter over two miles in late October. Lucy Wadham’s horse then franked the form in spades by, in turn, comfortable beating Jeriko Du Reponet at Kempton on his next run. Back Lump Sum 2 points to win at 9-2, a price available with almost all bookmakers.
The Grade 1 Betfair Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown tomorrow (3 p.m.) has only attracted a field of five runners and I will not be taking a financial interest in the race. However, the Henderson-trained Jonbon is tempting at 4-1 to record a hat-trick of wins in the race, despite the presence of Willie Mullins’s talented runner Il Etait Temps and the Dan Skelton-trained L’Eau du Sud.
The big betting race for me tomorrow is the William Hill Half A Mill Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree (2.40 p.m.) but my money is already down. I put up Gaboriot two weeks ago each way at 16-1 and stablemate White Rhino each way a week ago at 20-1. Both horses have more than halved in odds since then so here’s hoping.
I won’t be having any other bets tomorrow so instead I will look forward to my favourite handicap chase of the year, the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow on 27 December.
Once again, I am hoping Sam Thomas can do this blog a favour with one of his two entries in the race. Last year he trained the second and third in the race in the shape of Jubilee Express and Iwilldoit. The former is due to run again but only after contesting the Coral Welsh Grand National Trial Handicap Chase tomorrow at Chepstow (1.36 p.m.).
However, come 27 December, I prefer the chances of Thomas’s other entry SHOMEN UCHI, who is a talented if fragile horse. Despite being an eight-year-old gelding, he has only run seven times under rules. Last season he won his only start before picking up a tendon injury and not running again.
If running to his best, this horse could be thrown in off an official mark of just 133 and he has winning form at the course. He loves soft ground and, although he is untried at a trip as long as three miles six furlongs, his running style suggests he has an abundance of stamina. Back him 1 point each way at 16-1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power or Betfair, all paying four places.
As always, the Welsh Grand National is a competitive race. Until two weeks ago, I had also planned to back Joe Tizzard’s Rock My Way each way at 25-1. However, his chances may have gone after his easy win at Ascot last month saw him raised 9 lbs by the handicapper for the Chepstow contest. Furthermore, his odds have more than halved too.
That’s it for this week, betting wise, with just two new suggested wagers but with two other tips to watch for those who are already on ante-post in the Becher Chase.
Pending:
2 points win Lump Sum at 9-2 for the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase.
1 point each way Gaboriot at 16-1 for the Becher Chase, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way White Rhino at 20-1 for the Becher Chase, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Shomen Uchi for the Welsh Grand National at 16-1, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Romeo Coolio at 16-1 for the Arkle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Derryhassen Paddy at 25-1 for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 6.4 points.
1 point each way Palacio at 11-2 for the Coral Racing Club Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Guard Duty at 8-1 for the Join Coral Bet Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 2nd + 0.6 points.
1 point each way Viyanni at 9-2 for the Coral Racing Club Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Hot Fuss at 12-1 for the Coral Racing Club Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Katate Dori at 10-1 for the Coral Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. 6th. + 1 point.
1 point each way The Doyen Chief at 20-1 for the Coral Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2025-26 jumps season: running total – 18.1 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for six full seasons of tipping: + 126 points
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