As a former property journalist I understand why the media uses Brexit to explain the performance of the UK housing market. Or even, at a stretch, Donald Trump.
House prices are a national obsession, but a Brexit headline gives the story an extra dimension.
Coverage of all three subjects is likely to intensify in 2017, as this morning’s Article 50 verdict reminded us, so it seems like an appropriate moment to examine how close the links are between house prices, the UK’s decision to leave the European Union and the new US President.
First, let’s look at prime central London (PCL), where you would expect the biggest impact to be felt.
Knight Frank’s PCL index recorded a -6.3 per cent decline in 2016 and you will have seen the headlines about falling prices in London’s most expensive postcodes. Don’t stop reading here: the rather mundane cause is stamp duty not the EU referendum.
Two hikes since December 2014 have slowed transaction levels, which have started to stabilise as vendors reduce asking prices.
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