The Brexit talks are heading for a breakdown. Next week’s meeting will be a stand-off between the two sides. As I say in the magazine this week, the EU will make its demands on level playing field provisions and the UK will say they are unacceptable and render the talks pointless. The government’s hope is that by saying it will walk out of the talks in June it can persuade the EU to shift from its current, maximalist position.
The EU will offer carrot and stick in these talks. They’ll make clear that if the two sides agree a trade deal, they’ll go for a light touch at the border designed to minimise disruption. But if the talks break down, they’ll take a fingernail approach to border enforcement. They think that the threat of the garden of England turning into a lorry park will trump concerns over sovereignty and the level playing fields.
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