Today marks 100 days till the election — so how is the race looking? Still very close, according to the most recent opinion polls. In three polls released over the last 24 hours, the Tories are ahead by one point — according to YouGov, Survation and ComRes (notably, the first time they’ve put the Tories ahead since 2011). Only Lord Ashcroft has the Tories level pegging with Labour.
As the chart above shows, the two main parties are neck and neck. The Tories will be hoping these small leads will grow over the next few weeks while Labour will be pleased their opponents have yet to gain much traction. Ukip’s vote share appears to be holding up much stronger than most expected — YouGov and Ashcroft have them as low as 15 per cent and Survation as high as 23 per cent — while the Greens and Lib Dems are vying for a single-digit fourth place.
If these polls were replicated on 7 May, the result would be utterly confusing. While the Tories might slither ahead in terms of the vote share, the seat boundaries favour Labour — and that’s without considering the disruption effect of Ukip and the Greens. According to Electoral Calculus’ seat predictor, all of these polls would make Labour the largest party but put them just short of a Commons majority. YouGov’s poll would see them nine seats short, Ashcroft puts them four seats short, Survation 15 seats short and ComRes 12 short.
Yet even these predictions do not mean Ed Miliband would be in Downing Street. All of these polls would still put the Tories in with a chance of forming a coalition of sorts. As we’ve said on Coffee House for some months now, anyone who wants to predict the outcome is far braver than us. As the campaign momentum picks up, there’s nothing in these polls to suggest who will win.
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