Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

A vaccine won’t solve all our Covid problems

(Getty Images)

Today’s Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine update has raised hopes that life in Britain could start getting back to normal by spring. But cheers in Downing Street didn’t extend to AstraZeneca’s share price, which fell by nearly three per cent in response to the news. Why the dip in the wake of such good news?

AstraZeneca vaccine’s effectiveness – recorded at 70 per cent – is notably lower than its Pfizer and Moderna competitors. What’s more, the 70 per cent figure has been reached by averaging results from two groups who received the vaccine in different doses: a smaller group, who were given half a dose at first, recorded a 90 per cent efficiency rate, and the larger group, who were given two full doses, only a 62 per cent efficiency rate.

While there is plenty of reason to be hopeful about these vaccine developments, the mixed reaction to Oxford-AstraZeneca’s update serves as a reminder that not even the prospect of a vaccine can act as a silver bullet to all of our Covid woes. In the best case scenario – normal life resumes in the spring – the effects of locking down society for a year are set to linger long after societies are declared to be largely protected from the virus.

Capital Economics’s Neil Shearing warns that positive adjustments to economic forecasts, in light of vaccine success, must be interpreted with caution, as ‘rapid growth next year needs to be viewed in the context of large falls in output this year’:

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The UK economy is still nearly a tenth smaller than it was at the start of the year. The abandonment of restrictions and social distancing next spring could result in rapid recovery, but a V-shaped boom would be occurring almost a year after original predictions suggested.

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