My late father, who was the kindest man I have ever encountered, introduced me to horse racing when I was a small boy. Although he died all of 33 years ago, I still remember his advice to me when betting on the world’s most famous horse race: ‘The best form for the Grand National is… the Grand National.’
He was convinced that very few horses were capable of both jumping the unique Aintree brush fences and truly staying the marathon trip, which is now 4 miles 2 and a half furlongs. So he concentrated his bets on horses that had done well in the race the year before.
A few trainers seem to share my father’s thinking because the first three home a year ago all return once again tomorrow (5.15 p.m. race), along with plenty of other horses who fared with varying degrees of success, or otherwise, 12 months ago.
I put up my first bets for this year’s race in a column just before Christmas, concentrating on two horses I fancied strongly and that I knew were being aimed at the race. I suggested each way bets at 20-1 on Corach Rambler, who is now favourite for the race at around 8-1, and 33-1 on Lifetime Ambition, who is a bit of a forgotten horse for the race but who still makes plenty of appeal at odds of up to 28-1.
Corach Rambler managed to win the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham last month, for the second successive year, and is a fine jumper and strong stayer. The minuses are he is untried over both the Aintree fences and a marathon trip but he is undoubtedly the best handicapped horse in the race: 10lb ‘well in’ on his old mark that he can run off tomorrow before his new rating kicks in. However, if you have missed the price, he makes little appeal off his current skinny odds.
Lifetime Ambition is well named because his veteran Irish trainer Jessica Harrington is desperate to win the Aintree National for the first time. Victory for this lovely staying chaser and sound jumper would also give the race a fabulous storyline as the widely-admired Harrington is currently undergoing chemotherapy for breast cancer.
More than two months ago, I added Any Second Now to my big-race portfolio. Within days, his trainer, Ted Walsh, was left fuming when the handicapper gave his horse top weight. However, Any Second Now is a real National specialist having been an unlucky third two years ago and a close second a year ago. Now 11 years old, this gelding has a huge each-way chance even with top weight and odds of up to 16-1, many places, are still appealing.
As always, there are plenty of other runners with chances, perhaps led by Longhouse Poet, who was a well-beaten sixth last year when he ran too keenly. If he can be ridden with more restraint this time around, he will have a major chance for his astute Irish handler Martin Brassil.
If the ground had been really soft or heavy, I would have been tempted to suggest an each way bet on Hill Sixteen too but he is unlikely to win on the likely ‘good to soft’ ground. But, at huge odds, I am instead going to suggest a sporting bet on FRANCKY DU BERLAIS. His trainer, Peter Bowen, loves running horses over the Aintree fences and with great success too, having won the Topham Chase no less than five times.
Francky Du Berlais has successfully negotiated the Aintree fences three times, including when fourth behind stablemate Mac Tottie in the Randox Topham Handicap Chase 12 months ago. There is a huge question mark, however, over whether this horse will stay the National trip and he may not do. But at huge odds I am happy to take that risk.
Back him each way at 100-1, six places, with bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair and others (though others may prefer 80-1 seven places with Sky Bet). The 100-1 odds equal 20-1 for a place on a talented horse, sound jumper and from a stable with plenty of success over these fences. That’s too big in my book.
Don’t be put off by the ‘R’ by Francky Du Berlais’s name for his last run. He refused at the last fence in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham last month, but that was because a loose horse ran across him. He was third at the time, if a distant one, and had run a sound race at level weights against two classy animals.
I will be cheering on Gesskille this afternoon in the Topham Handicap Chase (4.05 p.m.), having put him up at 16-1 three weeks ago. He is now joint favourite at around half those odds.
In the Aintree 4.15 p.m. race tomorrow, I was tempted to put up both Nassalam, who race poorly at the Cheltenham Festival after making an early mistake, and Coconut Splash, who has also not met my expectations this season. But I will, in fact, pass on both this time around with the odds not big enough to suggest any bets.
Instead, I am going to put up a bet on another favourite horse of mine: ANNSAM for a big spring handicap chase. Evan Williams’s talented stayer has won two of his last three races and is now up to a lofty mark of 149.
However, now that he has learnt to settle he can defy his new rating with a big run in the bet365 Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Sandown on 29 April. He should thrive on this track as he is much better going right-handed because of his tendency to jump to the right. I fancied him at a big price for the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in November but on that left-handed track he faded to finish sixth.
There is talk of a possibly alternative target for Annsam at the Sandown meeting but I hope connections will be brave and target this £90,000 pot for the winner of the bet365 Gold Cup. Back him each way at 16-1 with either Ladbrokes or Unibet, both paying four places.
Anyway, enjoy the excitement of the world’s biggest race tomorrow, win or lose. The main thing is that all 40 horses and their jockeys return home safe and sound.
2022-3 jumps season running total + 42.5 points on all tips.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Gesskille at 16-1 in the Topham Chase, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Francky Du Berlais at 100-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, six places.
1 point each way Annsam at 16-1 in the bet365 Gold Cup, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
Settled bets:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced (4th). – 2 points.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.
1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.
1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25 p.m. paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st + 16.4 points.
2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with Skybet. 1st. + 10 points.
1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.
1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, 7 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Doncaster 3.15 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Back On The Lash at 7/1 for the Cheltenham 12.40 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 8.4 points
1 point each way Empire Steel at 12-1 in the Sandown 3.30 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Small Present at 25-1 for the Grand National Trial (Haydock 2.40pm) paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Homme Public at 9-1 for Ascot 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Party Business at 20-1 NRNB for the Pertemps Network Hurdle Final, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Benson at 16-1 in the Morebattle Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 19.2 points.
1 point each way Monviel at 17/2 for the Imperial Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. 5th. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 20-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake Returned.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB for the Plate Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake Returned.
1 point each way Doctor Bravo at 22-1 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Nassalam at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chases, paying 1/5th odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 20-1 for the Unibet Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Metamorpheus at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Juveniles Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. 6th. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 25-1 for the National Hunt Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places. 3rd. + 4 points.
1 point each way Camprond at 20-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 14-1 for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way French Dynamite at 14-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dashel Drasher at 28-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places. 3rd. + 4.6 points.
1 point each way Gin Coco at 14-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Magic Daze at 11-1 for the Mares Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three place. Refused to race. – 2 points.
1 point each way Might I at 10-1 NRNB for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5odds, five places. 4th. + 1 point.
1 point each way Iroko at 9-1 for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 10.8 points.
1 point each way The Galloping Bear at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. P. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 33-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 3rd. +5.6 points.
1 point each way Secret Reprieve at 10-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places. P. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dans Le Vent at 33-1 for the Uttoxeter 3.35pm, 1/5 odds, three places. U. – 2 points.
1 point each way Panda Boy at 16-1 in the Irish Grand National, 1/4 odds, four places. 5th. – 2 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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