As Fraser has already observed, annual CPI inflation rose to 4.4 per cent in July, from 4.2 per cent in June. This means that
it has been 4 per cent or more throughout 2011 and expectations are for it to reach 5 per cent before the year is out.
Even stripping out tax increases (such as the VAT rise in January), prices have risen by 2.8 per cent in the past year. But looking at the more detailed figures reveals even more dramatic price rises.
The biggest driver of inflation is rising transport costs, which account for 1.25 of that 4.4 per cent figure. “Fuels and lubricants” are 15.1 per cent more expensive than they were a year ago, air travel 12.5 and rail travel 9.3. In fact, rail travel costs have been rising rapidly for several years now, so for a trip that would’ve cost you £100 five years ago, you now have to spend (on average) £137. This will be compounded by the 8 per cent increase in rail fares next year.
The last year also saw a record rise in alcohol and tobacco prices, with tobacco up 12 per cent, spirits up 9.7 and beer up 9.5. Clothing costs too are rising faster than ever, having gone up 4.2 per cent in the last year.
So demands on people’s wallets are increasing considerably, but without a corresponding increase in the size of those wallets. Earnings rose by just 0.8 per cent in the year to March, meaning that real earnings actually fell by 3.1 per cent (or 4.2 per cent using RPI). As Fraser noted, this squeeze looks set to continue until at least the end of 2012 – a grim outlook indeed for families already stuggling to make ends meet.
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