Today Canadians go to the polls for their fourth general election in seven years, after Stephen Harper’s minority Conservative government fell to an unprecedented motion citing it for contempt of Parliament.
The story of the campaign has undoubtedly been the meteoric rise of Jack Layton’s New Democratic Party. Until now, the centre-left NDP had been the third party nationally — and, in fact, fourth in number of seats, due to the regional strength of the Bloc Québécois. However, they have enjoyed a steady surge over the past three weeks, with the election-eve polls putting them on about 31 per cent — more than 10 points ahead of the previously second-placed Liberal Party, as the graph below shows. Observers in this country have, unsurprisingly, drawn parallels with the Cleggmania that preceded our own general election. As with the Lib Dems then, the question for the NDP today is whether they can translate this new-found popular support into electoral success.
As for the overall result of the election, it is very unpredictable, largely due to uncertainty over how well the NDP vote will hold up. The most likely outcome has long been another Conservative minority government, although there is some chance that Harper will gain a majority. Conversely, there is also a chance that the NDP and Liberals combined will win more seats than the Conservatives, opening the possibility of a centre-left coalition. Even if this does come about, however, such a coalition would be unlikely to command a majority in Parliament, and so would probably have to rely on support from the Bloc Québécois.
Here, then, are the five key things to watch for in the results:
1. Will the Conservatives win a majority?
2. How well will the NDP vote hold up? Will they overtake the Liberals, and even get 100 seats or more?
3. How far will the Liberals fall, continuing their slide since they last won a majority in 2000?
4. If there is no Conservative majority, can the NDP and Liberals form a coalition (and who will be Prime Minister if they do?), or will Harper continue as PM with a minority?
5. How many seats will the Bloc Québécois lose? They won 49 in 2008 — more than half of Québéc — but some predictions have them winning as few as 12 this time.
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