Robert Tombs Robert Tombs

A choice of revolutions

A Le Pen victory would be the worst crisis for half a century. Even if she doesn’t, the system is in deep trouble

Is France on the brink of a political revolution? Already, four established candidates for the presidency — two former presidents and two former prime ministers — have backed out or been rejected by the voters, and another, François Fillon, is on the ropes. The campaign is being taken over by outsiders, principally the Front National’s Marine Le Pen and a youthful former banker, Emmanuel Macron, while the Socialists have chosen an eccentric radical, Benoît Hamon. Should we welcome a shake-up in the cradle of European revolutions? What kind of shake-up might it be — socialist (the least likely), liberal with Macron or nationalist with Le Pen? Or can the outsiders still be beaten by an electoral system designed to keep them out of power?

France in its modern history has worn out five monarchies, five republics and 16 constitutions — and two of this year’s presidential hopefuls are demanding a 17th. Its people are still more ready than most to go into the streets. It was, and is, a country in which rhetoric and visions play a prominent part in politics. In Victor Hugo’s Les Misérables, the romantic revolutionary Enjolras waxes lyrical from the top of his barricade about the glorious time when ‘thinkers will be completely free, believers completely equal, no more hatred, fraternity in the workshop and the school, jobs and rights for all’. But Enjolras gets killed, and his wish list is still at the top of the agenda nearly two centuries on.


Listen to Robert Tombs discuss the French election with Amandine Alexandre:


This is because France fluctuates between short spasms of change and longer periods of immobility. It has developed institutional barriers and tacit compromises to hold things steady. Its current Fifth Republic is a ‘republican monarchy’, with parliament downgraded and a powerful president supposed to unite the nation — a task sadly beyond most politicians.

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