Keir Starmer’s achievement is remarkable: ten months after Boris Johnson’s resounding victory, he has transformed Labour from no-hopers into a force that is terrifying the Tories. As the Conservative tribe prepares to gather for its virtual party conference, the obvious question is whether defeat at the next election is a realistic prospect. The answer, unlike in January 2020 must be: yes. Its likelihood, however, is a different matter.
A wise Tory strategist would be looking at the contrasting elections of 1992 and 1997 and taking note. At the same time, they should heed an important addendum to Denis Healey’s well known First Law of Holes (‘If in a hole stop digging’) that voters pay attention not only to whose fault it is that the country is in a hole, but which party they perceive to be best suited for getting the country out.
At the 1992 election, voters blamed the Conservatives for more than just assorted policy ills.
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