There are two major stories behind the headline results this morning: the rejection of elected mayors and the low voter turnout. Of these, I think the second is the most significant. You can apportion some of the blame to the dreary weather, if you like. But, still, a predicted turnout figure of 32 per cent? That’s hardly encouraging.
First, though, we shouldn’t exaggerate the situation. This wouldn’t be the lowest turnout figure for any local election in history — but the lowest since 2000, when the figure was less than 30 per cent. And it’s also true that turnout has risen for the past three general elections, even if we’re still some way down on the 83.9 per cent achieved in 1950.
That said, however, politicians should still be concerned by today’s numbers. Not only is 32 per cent terribly low in itself, but it has come at a time when, in theory, the public are more connected to politics than ever before. There’s 24-hour news coverage, the Internet, blogs, social media, etc, all helping us to cultivate our political opinions. There are even postal ballots to help us express those opinions more easily. And yet the public still can’t really be fussed. Judging by all the available evidence, while they have a clearer view of politics than previous electorates have enjoyed, they just don’t like what they see.
All of which is deeply problematic for David Cameron. Before the election, he presented himself as the fresh-faced, sock-it-to-the-system candidate. But now, after two years of coalition government, the public are as distrustful of politicians as they ever were during the expenses scandal. And it could get worse. The thing about low voter turnout is that it can push politics into a descending spiral, whereby ambitious politicians capitalise from making sectional appeals to groups that are certain to vote, rather than cross-sectional appeals to groups that may not. Democracy withers along the way.
Then there’s Leveson. After the past few weeks, the last thing Cameron would have wanted was for his name and his government to be dragged closer into the phone hacking furore — but that is what’s set to happen. Some bounce may return to Tory footsteps this evening, with the London Mayoral results, but there’s also a lot to drag them down.
Comments