A Leap into the Libyan Unknown

So we’re going to war again. This may be David Cameron’s first conflict but it’s the seventh time in just 21 years that a British Prime Minister has committed Her Majesty’s forces to military action. Are we doing the right thing? I don’t know and I’m mildly suspicious of those who seem too certain about anything Libyan right now, rehardless of which side of the argument their certainties lie. Now that it is beginning, however, let it at least be done properly and let us hope that, somehow or other, Gaddafi capitulates.

But if he does not do not be fooled into thinking that this will be over soon. Like it or not we are now in it for the long-haul. The history of UN-mandated missions does not support the notion that this will be a quick or easy campaign. The UN is still present in Bosnia and Kosovo and it seems quite possible, even if this mission achieves its stated goals, that it will be in Libya for years to come. That’s probable, surely, even if or perhaps especially if the end result is the partition of Libya. Indeed,a Kosovan-style outcome may now be the best available.

Connoisseurs of irony will appreciate that this action is only possible – or, to be strictly accurate, the UN mandate has only been granted – because war has been endorsed by the Arab League – an organisation made up of despots whose rule in their home countries is a large part of the problems that bedevil the middle east and whom we correctly consider culpable for their grievous misrule that has helped thwart hope and progress in the region. That doesn’t mean that this war is “hypocritical” or anything, it’s just an irony.

Perhaps it is the right thing to do, but is it sensible? (And for the Americans, is it even constitutional? Not at the moment it ain’t.) And where does it end? Andrew Exum asks many of the right questions:

What happens if Gadhafi pulls back? Do we continue to try and press the advantage of the rebels until his government falls? Do we have the authorization to do that? Do we expect a civil war in Libya to drag out, and if so, how will we take sides? If Gadhafi falls, what comes next? What will the new Libyan government look like? Will they be friendly to U.S. interests? Someone please tell me how this ends.

Susan Rice, the US Ambassador to the United states said tonight that “The future of Libya should be decided by the people of Libya”. That’s why, I suppose, we are already taking sides in what is already a civil war. Gaddafi is a murderous tyrant but we are going to fight in support of people about whom we know little and of whom we cannot be certain, in a country of little vital or strategic importance. Again, perhaps this is the right thing to do, but is it prudent? (David Aaronovitch, incidentally, makes a good fist of the interventionist case in the Times today.)

Have we, without quite saying so, embarked upon a policy of regime change in Libya? It seems to me that, logically speaking, we have. That in turn means we need a great deal of luck if Gaddafi is to be driven from office by airstrikes alone. Despite the UN Resolution’s declaration that there will be no “foreign occupation force of any form” there may well be foreign troops deployed to Libya. As the New York Times reports:

With the recent advances made by pro-Qaddafi forces in the east, there was a growing consensus in the Obama administration that imposing a no-fly zone by itself would no longer make much of a difference and that there was a need for more aggressive airstrikes that would make targets of Colonel Qaddafi’s tanks and heavy artillery — an option sometimes referred to as a no-drive zone. The United States or its allies might also send military personnel to advise and train the rebels, an official said.

Emphasis added, of course. Like it or not, the “west” now “owns” part of the future governance of Libya (or whatever part of Libya western support helps the rebels hold). That imposes certain obligations upon us.

One way or another I think we’re going to be there for a long time. That being so let’s at least, again, endeavour to do this one properly. Alea iacta est and all that.

Perhaps my enthusiasm for the Iraq War has made me too cautious now. Perhaps this war really will be short, sharp and won. Perhaps it will end well or at least end better than it might have had we not intervened. But I wish I could be more confident that it will. Let us hope I am wrong.