It seems rather Jo Mooreish to be discussing the political implications of Hurricane Gustav as people are forced to evacuate their homes but with the hurricane expected to make landfall as the Republican convention gets under way and with the legacy of Katrina there is an unavoidable political angle to this story. As Fraser notes, the Republicans cannot in the current circumstances have a typical convention. It would be wrong both stylistically and substantively to have speakers indulging in partisan rhetoric as a natural disaster strikes.
At first blush, this appears to put John McCain at a further disadvantage. While the Democrats had four days of wall to wall media coverage and Barack Obama delivered his speech to 80,000 people in a stadium and 38 million watching on TV, the Republicans are going to be presented in split screen with a hurricane and John McCain might well deliver his speech not in the convention hall but via-video link.
But the news is not as bleak as it first appears for the Republicans. The storm gives McCain an opportunity to demonstrate the crisis-management skills he would bring to the White House and to present himself as a figure who puts country above partisan interests. Also, preventing a like for like comparison between McCain and Obama’s convention speeches is no bad thing for McCain. While avoiding pictures of the Republican convention cheering Bush and Cheney to the rafters is probably a good thing for the McCain campaign. On top of this, the current situation offers the GOP the chance to show a different side to it than the caricature of it that is sometimes presented in the media; delegates preparing care packages on the convention floor would be a compelling image.
Perhaps, the biggest political effect of the hurricane is that it has slowed the race to define Sarah Palin. There are limits to how hard the Democrats or the press can go after her in the current circumstances. Equally, the McCain campaign’s roll-out of her is no longer dominating the news as it was on Friday. On the one hand, this focus on a natural disaster emphasises executive skills and experience, something that Palin is the only person on either ticket to really have. On the other, the gap gives the media and the Democrats more time to research her record and could lead to a flood of questions about various mini-scandals in Alaska being dumped on her as soon as the hurricane has passed.
Hurricane Gustave is, like the Russian invasion of Georgia, a reminder that events are going to impact the presidential race between now and November 4th in a way that no one can confidently predict. Which campaign reacts better to these unwanted surprises is going to play a crucial role in deciding who comes out on top on November 4th
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