James Forsyth

A poll taken at the same time as the Ipsos-Mori poll had the Tories 14 points ahead

A poll taken at the same time as the Ipsos-Mori poll had the Tories 14 points ahead
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The Observer’s Ipsos-Mori poll has dominated political discussion since its publication on Sunday. But two things that I have heard tonight have increased my scepticism that it marks a dramatic shift in public opinion. First, I hear that another of the big pollsters had a survey in the field at the same time and it showed a fourteen point Tory lead. Second, a new poll for Political Betting has Labour down on 22, only a point ahead of the Lib Dems.

With polls it is the ones that are surprising that make waves; I’m sure we’ll all run down a few more rabbit holes before election day. The odd surprsingly tight poll is not all bad for the Tories. It helps, as one candidate in a marginal seat said to me yesterday, get the activists out and deals with any sense of complacency. But what should worry the Tories from the Mori poll is that the certainty of Labour supporters to vote is increasing. Combine that with a certain grassroots disilusionment with Cameron post Lisbon and you have a potential problem.