With polls it is the ones that are surprising that make waves; I’m sure we’ll all run down a few more rabbit holes before election day. The odd surprsingly tight poll is not all bad for the Tories. It helps, as one candidate in a marginal seat said to me yesterday, get the activists out and deals with any sense of complacency. But what should worry the Tories from the Mori poll is that the certainty of Labour supporters to vote is increasing. Combine that with a certain grassroots disilusionment with Cameron post Lisbon and you have a potential problem.