So the great day is here. Those of us who wish to vote ‘Leave’ will be heading to the polls in the hope that this is the eve of our nation’s independence. Those voting ‘Remain’ will obviously be heading to the polls hoping that the current status quo in Europe will continue.
Throughout the campaign I have been repeatedly struck by how many undecided (as well as Remain voters) have told me that the EU is anything ranging from a ‘disaster zone’ to ‘a body badly in need of reform’. I would like to make a point to these people.
As I pointed out in Foreign Affairs yesterday, if you believe that the EU badly needs reform the worst thing you can do today is to vote ‘Remain’. Since the polls largely show Remain ahead and the status quo (small-‘c’ conservative) option tends to be favoured in such referenda it seems to me that the best thing to do is to vote ‘Leave’ even if you would like to‘Remain’ and think we will. The reason – as I say in Foreign Affairs – is that if the result of today’s referendum is indeed a vote to ‘Remain’ then the closeness of the vote matters. A 60-40% victory for Remain would be taken by the Commission in Brussels as final evidence that consecutive UK governments of all stripes have been bluffing all these years about the concerns of the British public. They would be right to see it in such a way. If, however, the result were 51-49% with ‘Remain’ still winning then this country still retains some bargaining power and diplomatic leverage in Brussels.
Obviously I hope the result is a win for ‘Leave’. But if you do want to ‘Remain’ then it’s worth keeping in mind that there are different types of ‘Remain’ and that a sceptical or concerned Remainer is thus far better off voting ‘Leave’.
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