When I put up Zoffee at 20-1 for the Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate six weeks ago, I said that I was hoping he would swerve the big staying handicaps at Royal Ascot. I had suspected trainer Hugo Palmer wanted to keep his horse fresh for tomorrow’s target which has a first prize of more than £80,000.
Sadly, the temptation to dress up in top hat and tails was too hard to resist for his owners and the seven-year-old gelding lined up in the Ascot Stakes, running well despite a poor passage and an average ride to be sixth behind Ahorsewithnoname.
That race over a marathon trip was only ten days ago but Zoffee will nevertheless take his chances tomorrow (Newcastle 2.05 p.m.) at far less than half the odds compared to when I tipped him. The Plate is over his ideal trip of two miles and on a surface – Newcastle’s all-weather track – that he thrives on, having won the Northumberland Vase, the consolation race for the Northumberland Plate, a year ago.
If the exertions from his recent run have not taken their toll, Zoffee will run well tomorrow but that’s quit a big ‘if’, so I want to go into the race double-handed. The favourite for the William Haggas/Tom Marquand combination is Post Impressionist who won a competitive handicap at York in October. He looks as if he has been kept back this season for this big pot. The same comments apply to Omniscient, who is also making his seasonal debut.
I am happy to overlook their chances, however, because I would prefer to back ADJUVANT from the in-form Newmarket yard of Michael Bell, who trained a winner at Royal Ascot last week. Bell has booked Billy Loughnane for the ride and this talented young claimer is worth every ounce of his 3 lbs allowance.
Adjuvant was impressive when winning at Newmarket last month but he has gone up 5 lbs in the official ratings for that victory. He has also never raced on the all-weather but he did have a recent gallop at Chelmsford racecourse to try the surface and that is said to have gone well.
Adjuvant looks an improver and his penultimate run, when second to HMS President, also at Newmarket, has been franked by the winner running a big race when second at Royal Ascot last week. Furthermore, the fourth, sixth, and eighth placed horses from that Newmarket race on 7 May have won since, making that form look rock solid.
If he takes to Newcastle’s all-weather surface, Adjuvant has an excellent chance of landing the spoils. Back him each way at 13-2 with bet365 offering six places in the race.
Plenty of horses entered my ‘horse tracker’ as a result of big runs at Royal Ascot last week. One of them was SONNY LISTON, who was only beaten by his stable mate, Jimi Hendrix, in the 30-runner Royal Hunt Cup. Admittedly, like the winner, Sonny Liston benefitted from being held up off a suicidal early pace but it was still a fine run.
Sonny Liston can run off his old rating in the John Smith’s Cup Handicap at York on 15 July and he looks likely to take up that entry, which makes him 4 lbs ‘well in’ compared with his new mark. Ralph Beckett’s lightly-raced four-year-old gelding should also benefit from the step up in trip and I hope his trainer can once again secure the services of Ryan Moore. Back him each way at 20-1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair or Unibet, all paying four places.
Finally, don’t forget that, if you followed my advice, we are on Sprewell each way at 7-1 for the Group 1 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby at the Curragh on Sunday (3.40 p.m.). Jessica Harrington’s colt may face an impossible task against the odds-on favourite Auguste Rodin but I would be very disappointed if he can not make the first three home to show a modest profit on the bet.
2023 flat season running total: – 6.53 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
1 point each way Zoffee at 20-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 points each way Adjuvant at 13/2 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/5th odds, six places.
1 point each way Sprewell at 7-1 for the Irish Derby, paying 1/5 odds, three places.
1 point each way Sonny Liston at 20-1 for the John Smith’s Cup Handicap, paying ¼ odds, four places.
Settled bets:
1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 17/2 in the 2000 Guineas, 1/5 odds, paying four places. 3rd. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Call My Bluff at 4-1 in the Chester Cup, paying six places, 1/5th odds. 3rd. – 0.2 points.
1 point each way Safe Voyage at 12-1 in the Victoria Cup, paying seven places, 1/5th odds. 5th. + 1.4 points.
1 point each way Popmaster at 6-1 in the Connect It Utility Services Handicap. Unplaced. – 2 points
1 point each way Royal Acclaim at 6-1 in the Temple Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 point.
1 point each way Sprewell at 10-1 for the Derby paying 1/5 odds, five places. 4th. + 1 point.
1 point each way Arrest at 4-1 for the Derby, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points. 2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup.
1 point each way Mokaatil at 12-1 for the Epsom Dash, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Saga at 14-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup. Non Runner. – 2 points.
1 point each way Twilight Calls at 16-1 for the King’s Stand Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. 4th but Rule 4 deduction of 15p in the £. + 1.97 points.
2 points win Royal Scotsman at 14-1 for the St James’s Palace Stakes. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Zoffee at 14-1 for the Ascot Stakes, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Chillingham at 22-1 for the Copper Horse Handicap, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. 4th. + 3.4 points.
1 point each way Tarrabb at 10-1 for the Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, seven places. 3rd. + 1 point.
1 point each way Point Lynas at 33-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Atrium at 20-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Circle of Fire at 13/2 for the Queen’s Vase, paying 1/5th odds, four places. 4th. + 0.3 points.
2 points win Yibir at 11-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Rhoscolyn at 22-1 for the Buckingham Palace Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, six places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Physique at 40-1 for the Britannia Stakes, paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lezoo at 9-1 for the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Chelsea Green at 12-1 for the Sandringham Stakes, paying 1/5 odds, eight places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Pyledriver at 15/2 for the Hardwicke Stakes. 1st but Rule 4 deduction of 30p in the £. + 9.9 points.
1 point each way Apollo One at 16-1 for the Wokingham Stakes, 1/5th odds, paying eight places. 2nd. + 2.2 points.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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