A vaccine won’t heal the scarring of lockdown

Ever since the pandemic struck, a spectre has haunted Boris Johnson: would Britain ever escape from this? His scientific advisers had given him a terrifying vision. Only 7 per cent of the public had caught Covid in the first wave, they said, meaning 93 per cent were still susceptible. So what was to stop his premiership being a never-ending cycle of lockdowns? Now, he has his answer: not one but three vaccines, two with efficacy rates of 95 per cent. This has transformed his outlook. The war against Covid is not over, but victory looks imminent.

The Prime Minister has a weakness for wartime metaphors, but this time they are more appropriate than he might find comfortable. For months, his government has had one overriding priority: defeating the viral enemy, no cost spared. But decisions made in the heat of battle will go on to define the rest of the decade. Victory comes at a huge cost. We can calculate the damage to the national finances, but the effect on education, mental health, employment and society remains devastating.

This, now, is the mission facing the government. ‘Everything will depend on what we do next,’ Johnson told allies a few weeks ago. Labour, he said, will come up with its solutions: big government, huge taxes, minimal personal freedom. And what the Tories propose could define politics for the next decade. He describes it as ‘the biggest political argument of my lifetime’ — and one, he says, that the Conservatives need to win.

Before the big argument, there are many smaller ones. Tory MPs are already grumpy about the fact that restrictions will continue until spring. They are determined to ensure that there is a day when all the Covid-related rules go. One senior backbencher tells me: ‘There has to be a campaign to make sure this happens.’