A warm May and a wet June don’t tell us anything about climate change

What do you suppose the chances are of this being the coldest June since records began, or maybe the dampest June since records began? My guess is that it will almost certainly be the most dramatic of some climatic variation since records began; paradoxically, every other month is. Every season is. Every year is. Every year is something. The weather is on a roll, it keeps breaking records, nothing can stop it.

Why is this? The most obvious answer is climate change; we are seeing more extreme weather patterns both globally and locally. We know that the weather patterns are more extreme because we are told that they are, every week, every month, every season. Extreme weather is a consequence of man-made climate change, so we shouldn’t be surprised at this. Don’t take my word for it — read John Vidal, writing in the Guardian this week, about what he called the ‘climate rollercoaster’ and the establishment of what some experts call the ‘new normal’ for weather, i.e. the following: ‘Drought zones have been declared across much of England and Wales, yet Scotland has just experienced its wettest ever May. The warmest spring in 100 years followed one of the coldest UK winters in 300 years. June in London has been colder than March… February was warm enough to strip on Snowdon’ and so on. John then quotes some climate expert who tells him: ‘We are being battered by the adverse impacts of climate change.’ QED, then.

Well, let’s take a look at this ambitious, hyperactive weather we’re all enjoying. The comment ‘drought zones have been declared across much of England and Wales’ seems to refer to, er, East Anglia. A few other areas are indeed at the ‘near drought’ stage, and the water companies are warning, as they do every year, that restrictions on water usage might be brought in.