It’s difficult to imagine a more cautious revolutionary than John Swinney. When the First Minister was unexpectedly swept into Charlotte Square just one year ago – answering the call of a party in need of healing and direction in equal measure – few expected him to author a radical’s reset. The party of the late Alex Salmond’s braggadocio, Nicola Sturgeon’s sure-footedness and Humza Yousaf’s faltering optimism had turned, perhaps inevitably, to the reassuringly experienced veteran whose political style has been compared to that of a Blairgowrie bank manager.
When he returned to the frontline, some thought Swinney was to play the part of a political caretaker – a soothing interregnum before the next generation of SNP politicians step up. But that was to misread this longtime party loyalist, who intended to make both party and government seem plausible in the eyes of voters once again.
It’s worth remembering that this time last year the SNP was viewed by an increasing number of voters as being a political bin fire. Whether it was Operation Branchform, the fallout between Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon, an iPad bill, trans rights or how to pursue independence, the SNP was riven by scandal, proxy wars and internal divisions. Yet, despite all of that, John Swinney has managed to deliver what the party needed most of all: a ceasefire with itself.
The First Minister took office understanding that the SNP had to re-earn the right to be heard by voters, and that meant getting both party and government affairs in order. This was no small task but, if recent polls are to be believed, he is having some success. On current trends he would be returned as First Minister next year, with the party losing some seats but remaining the largest in Holyrood by some distance. A lot can happen between now and next May, but this is a remarkable turnaround from last year’s general election drubbing.
Where Humza Yousaf described himself as the party’s ‘First Activist’, Swinney needs no such self-appointed honour. Mr Yousaf’s tenure – well-meaning but adrift – was riddled with missteps, culminating in the abrupt nuking of his own career. The contrast with Nicola Sturgeon is no less instructive. She was once master of all before her, with a command of Scottish politics few others have enjoyed. The passage of time has somewhat exposed the limits of her political capital. She left behind a party fractured on policy, but also on purpose. Her sudden resignation created a monumental political vacuum that only widened over Yousaf’s time in office. John Swinney’s ministry is more one of purposeful managerialism than activist. In an era of political anxiety and overreach, this isn’t to be mistaken to be a bad thing.
John Swinney’s ministry is more one of purposeful managerialism than activist. In an era of political anxiety and overreach, this isn’t a bad thing.
Gone is the need for a new announcement every day – eschewing government by press release – now replaced by an administration that treads a little more lightly on people’s daily lives. Indeed, his programme for government this week contains just six new parliamentary bills and has a focus on the issues that resonate most with voters, principally the NHS and the economy. This is where John Swinney’s advantage lies: in his realism. He understands that government cannot solve every problem, and he has no intention of trying to do so. If a sense of restraint is his hallmark, it is also his strength.
Even on independence – notably absent from his programme for government speech – John Swinney treads a lighter path. His instincts are gradualist, but he has the political capital to lead an impatient party that doesn’t misread the national mood. You simply will not hear the First Minister thundering about de facto referendums. Instead, he speaks of persuasion and a constitutionally proper way forward, because he knows there’s work to be done before that question can seriously be put once again.
Later this year, the party will meet to decide what should go into its manifesto with regards to independence. There’s no doubt the First Minister has a tough balance to strike between the demands of impatient activists and a country still to be convinced. Expect him to invite delegates to elevate the national interest over their own restlessness. Having turned around his party’s fortunes in a way few could have expected this time last year, he will do so with considerable authority – but that doesn’t mean it will be plain sailing.
John Swinney begins the 12 month election countdown in a good place. His party has stepped back from the brink of fracturing and he has brought order where there was once drift. He is also blessed in his opponents in SW1. His advisers know that this isn’t enough, and in the months ahead he will need to deliver tangible differences in policy. Having healed the SNP, now he must set it on a convincing new direction. If he can pull it off, then this cautious revolutionary might turn out to be a more consequential leader than many had given him credit for.
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