Talk to senior Labour figures about the polls that show them losing 30 or more seats in Scotland, and they say two things. The first is that these polls have been taken at the worst possible moment for them, just after the bitter resignation of the Scottish Labour leader. The second is that when it comes to a UK general election, Scottish voters will—however reluctantly—accept that it is a choice between Labour and the Tories.
But the aftermath of the referendum means that this second point will not apply as strongly as usual. Having campaigned together against independence, Labour and the Tories do not look as dramatically different as they used to in Scotland.
Perhaps, more importantly, though the SNP will argue that you need to send a large number of Nationalists to guarantee that the promises made during the referendum campaign of extra powers are kept. As Alex Salmond puts it in an interview with The Guardian today, ‘And whether or not that vow is redeemed will be down to numbers, too. Whether we have enough to hold the balance of power.’
This is how the Nationalists will try and make the general election about Scottish constitutional questions as well as who governs at Westminster. If the SNP can make these devolution issues one of the main issues of the general election campaign in Scotland, then they could really hurt Labour north of the border.
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