The Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election is fast shaping up to be the event that will
set the tone for the first quarter of the political year. The unique circumstances in which the vote was called makes it particularly hard to predict, no one is quite sure whether there’ll be
a backlash against Woolas or one against the Lib Dems for going to court to overturn the result.
As I say in the magazine tomorrow, if the Lib Dems were to win, it would give Clegg the breathing space he so needs at the moment. Lib Dem worries about what the coalition is doing to them politically would subside, temporarily at least, and Ed Miliband would find himself under pressure.
But if the Lib Dems don’t overturn Labour’s wafer-thin majority, then I expect we will see a lot more Lib Dem attempts to boast about what they have achieved in government and what they have stopped the Tories doing. This, in turn, will anger the increasingly truculent ‘Tory mainstream’.
Indeed, if Simon Hughes wants to talk about there being ‘battles to fight’ inside the coalition on tax, immigration and schools it is almost inevitable that Tories will respond in kind. If Number 10 is to keep a lid on this sniping, Cameron and his team will have to be far more assiduous in touring the tea rooms and listening to the complaints of Tory MPs than they have been.
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