Lambourn trainer Dominic Ffrench Davis has started the Flat season in fine form with nine winners from just 37 runners for a winning per cent to races of 24 per cent. This year he has undoubtedly benefitted from an influx of more than 20 horses from high-spending owners, Amo Racing, but he is a trainer I have always liked because he gets the best out of his horses.
I hope he lands his biggest pot of the season to date later today when he runs CALL MY BLUFF in the Tote Chester Cup (3.15pm). This six-year-old gelding has been with Ffrench Davis since he was a two-year-old winning four of his 14 races on turf and creeping up the ratings as a result.
Last season Call My Bluff ran some good races but without winning any of his six contests. However, he made a very promising seasonal debut last month at Newbury when second, albeit well beaten, to a real improver, Novel Legend.
As at Newbury, he will get his preferred ground with some cut in it today. He’s well handicapped too because after his last run he was raised 2lbs in the ratings to 90. However, he can run off his old mark of 88 today because this is an early closing handicap.
Call My Bluff stays this marathon trip of 2 miles 2 furlongs well and, even more importantly, he has run well over this course in all his three races at Chester, which is a specialist track with its sharp twists and turns. Better still, he has a very favourable draw in stall 2 which, even over this long trip, is a big advantage.
The only downside is his style of running. He is a hold-up horse and so, with his inside draw, he is going to need plenty of luck in running as he, hopefully, starts to pick off the field in the last half mile of this race. It’s all too easy to get trapped behind a wall of horses in a big field at Chester but let’s hope he gets a clear passage.
Sadly, his price has crashed – he was available ant post at 25-1 on Tuesday, when it was doubtful he would make the ‘cut’ for the race, and at 10-1 yesterday afternoon. Those prices are a distant memory this morning.
Back him each way at 4-1 with Sky Bet paying six places in a race in which plenty of horses I have liked over the years can prove big dangers, including Calling the Wind and Metier, who will both also relish the soft ground. Emiyn, may also outrun his odds from stall one if returning to his best form from last season at this track.
Vino Victrix, who ran a belter to be second in the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap at the end of last season, can also figure in this race as he looked in need of his prep run last time out at Newbury, behind both Novel Legend and Call My Bluff.
I can rarely resist having a bet in the big-field handicaps on Ascot’s straight course and tomorrow is no exception. The Peroni Nastro Azzuro Victoria Cup over seven furlongs (2.40pm) is an ultra-competitive 23-runner contest and, as always, it is impossible to guarantee which side of the track will be favoured by the draw.
However, in this race last season high numbers, close to the stands, had a distinct advantage on the soft ground and I suspect it may be the same tomorrow.
SAFE VOYAGE, drawn in stall 22, is, at the age of ten, the oldest horse in the race and some people will write him off because of that statistic. Sure, he is not quite as good as he was at his prime and he might be vulnerable to the young improvers.
But he has dropped down the ratings from a high of 116 to his current mark of 97 and he can still do some damage off that mark on his preferred soft ground. Back him each way at 12-1 with Sky Bet, paying seven places. (Others are offering better odds but fewer places.)
The list of dangers is too long to mention with several course specialists due to line up in the field. I thought about going in double-handed with River Nymph because he also loves both this straight course and the sand-based track when the ground is soft. But this is his first run of the season and his fitness has to be taken on trust, so I will leave it with just the one bet in the race.
Last week, Royal Scotsman ran a big race for this column in the Qipco 2000 Guineas considering the ground went against him, plus he pulled too hard and ran on the least favoured part of the track. He might well reverse places with Chaldean in the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot next month but odds of only 4-1 make zero appeal at this stage.
2023 flat season running total: + 0.5 points.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Call My Bluff at 4-1 in the Chester 3.15pm today, paying six places, 1/5th odds.
1 point each way Safe Voyage at 12-1 in the Ascot 2.40pm Saturday, paying seven places, 1/5th odds.
Settled bets:
1 point each way Royal Scotsman at 17/2 in the 2000 Guineas, 1/5 odds, paying four places. 3rd. +0.5 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.1 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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