What is going on with the opinion polls? In his first national poll of 2015, Lord Ashcroft has the Conservatives six points ahead of Labour at 34 per cent — whereas Populus also have a new poll out today putting Labour five points ahead. And yesterday’s YouGov poll put both on 32 per cent. As the chart above shows, three of the UK’s most prominent pollsters all have completely different predictions on who will win the next election.
This poll shows a significant jump in the Conservative position since Ashcroft’s last 2014 poll, which put the party on 40 per cent. So, the question is what’s going on — is this the beginning of the long awaited ‘crossover’ with Labour that Conservative HQ have been hoping for? Or is this an anomaly? One theory is that this could be the first sign of voters making up their minds against Labour and the party’s soft lead is beginning to evaporate.
[datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/egC7s/index.html”]
As Ashcroft points out in his analysis on ConservativeHome, the campaign for a Conservative victory rests on the notion that Britain is on the road to recovery and Labour would put that at risk. Some of Ashcroft’s numbers back up the notion that the so-called cost of living crisis is over: 39 per cent say the economy is recovering but they do not feel any better off — a 12-point drop since September. Or it could be down to the methodology: the Populus poll was conducted online while Ashcroft’s was a telephone poll.
One thing is for certain: the polls over the next few months are likely to remain volatile. Today’s poll also suggests this election looks isn’t going to be a landslide for Labour or the Tories. Even without the three-point margin of error in the Ashcroft fieldwork, 34 per cent is not enough for the Conservatives to win a Commons majority — assuming this result is reflected in a national swing. As we’ve discussed before on Coffee House, the idea of a uniform swing in May is increasingly unlikely.
Comments