A dangerous escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict this morning, as rockets are fired into northern Israel from Lebanon. As far as I can tell, no group has yet claimed responsibility for the attacks – although suspicion has to fall on Hezbollah. The fear now is that this represents the opening of another sustained front in the current conflict. And the key question is of how Israel will respond.
Any response will partly be a function of scope and ambition. Does the Israeli administration feel it’s already dealt enough damage to Hamas in Gaza? Does it want to spend more time to effectively wipe out Hamas? Or does it want to tackle other terrorist groups, such as Hezbollah, as well? Of course, the more ambitious Israel’s aims, the less likely it is to succeed; and the longer and more expansive its campaign, the less likely it is to win the PR war. With memories of the messy 2006 operation in Lebanon still lingering in Israeli minds, I wouldn’t be too surprised if it avoids ground operations there this time around. Either way, these are the moments that remind you just how precarious Israel’s position is.
P.S. One thing to look out for is whether Syria has a role to play is all this, or is playing a role already. The country’s all too often been a thoroughfare-cum-enclave for Hezbollah and its arsenal. Although, recently, there’s been hope of improved relations between Israel and Syria – something that may be predicated on Syria taking action against the anti-Israeli terrorist groups within its own borders.
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