As the NotW says, the LibDems "are up an astonishing 5 percent since January and are now closer than ever to holding the balance of power They have taken 4 percent off the Conservatives in the marginal seats, while Labour have been unable to win any new support." It quotes Martin Boon, ICM’s Head of social & government research, saying: “The latest ICM/NotW poll shows that the Liberal Democrats are powering back into the equation in the crucial marginal seats that will determine who wins this election – largely at the expense of the Tories ... These results have important implications for seats in the next House of Commons, with a hung parliament a real prospect.”
My thoughts about a hung parliament are depicted in the graphic above.
Here's the small print: ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1001 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 7-8th April 2010. Interviews were conducted across the 96 (new boundary) constituencies which are held by Labour where the Conservatives require a swing of between 4 percent and 10 percent to win the seat. The results have been weighted to the profile of all adults aged 18+ living in the eligible constituencies. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Seat projection: Con servatives - 308; Labour - 248; Lib Dems - 61; Others - 33.