Last year I suggested that the State of the Union speech was an unexpectedly important moment for Barack Obama. Except in as much as it was needed to steady Democratic nerves frayed by Scott Brown’s victory in Massachusetts, I don’t think this was true. In part that’s because I can’t remember anything about it and had to remind myself what I thought of it at the time.
So let’s try something different this* year: this is an unusually unimportant State of the Union address. As Ezra Klein notes, these things rarely make much of a difference (they rarely confirm or reverse any prevailing media “narrative”) and, in any case, the White House seems to have prepared the ground quite effectively this year. Plus, the PResident’s poll numbers are reasonably healthy and there’s some reason anyway to hope that better economic times lie ahead.
Furthermore, the new Republican Congress makes life easier for Obama – rhetorically at least. There’s something to play against and that helps him. If he can’t command the centre (wherever that is defined these days) then there’s something wrong. Again, this is a question of rhetoric more than a policy matter.
Fundamentally, however, when people recall Obama speeches in the future the January 2011 one they will remember is the speech he gave in Tucson earlier this month. The State of the Union is just an annual rigmarole; the Tucson speech was actually real. And that’s another reason why tonight’s speech probably won’t be very important.
It will still, of course, be analysed and parsed to death. But it won’t be memorable. Or vital. Unless there is a surprise Haggis Proclamation of course.
*Obviously, the Laws of Punditry allow that we may pivot back to thinking the SOTU important next season. But even in an election year it might not matter hugely.
Comments