Ignore the antediluvian hatreds for a moment. As Anne Dawson says, the recent violence in East Belfast was largely inspired by current economic distress. Northern Ireland’s economy is a serious cause for concern. Central expenditure per head is 25 per cent higher in Ulster than the UK norm and 70 per cent of Northern Ireland’s economy lies in the public sector according to parliamentary one estimate. Although the province has much to commend itself to business – competitive operating costs and excellent transport links serviced by substantial capital investment – private enterprise remains depressed. A report by PriceWaterhouseCoopers in March found that growth was negligible and that unemployment is running at 6.6 percent (compared to the UK March average of 4.5 per cent). And, naturally, economic hardship breeds serious crime. Robbery increased by more than 2 per cent last year, despite an otherwise successful investment campaign in the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI).
Much of David Cameron’s speech to Stormont earlier this month was devoted to reviving Ulster’s economy. Stormont already controls many of the levers to encourage investment, but politicians from both communities look at the Republic of Ireland’s 12.5 per cent rate of corporation tax and Ulster’s 26 per cent rate (set by Westminster) and conclude that they can’t compete. Research by the Economic Advisory Group reckons that 58,000 new jobs would be created by 2030 if the rate was cut to Dublin’s level; a consequence of which would be to raise the value of export sales and the general standard of living. At the behest of Stormont, a consultation is underway to see if responsibility for setting corporation tax might be transferred. Cameron and Owen Paterson have promised to consider the conclusions of the consultation; but the Treasury is reluctant to relinquish this vital fiscal control, not least because the resurgent Alex Salmond also his eye on claiming corporation tax for Holyrood.
Friction between Whitehall and Stormont generates wariness, not least because Sinn Fein loses no time in evoking the feared spectre of ‘The Troubles’ if its wishes are frustrated. On this occasion however, a small band of loyalists has been rioting around the predominantly nationalist enclave of Short Strand in mainly loyalist East Belfast. Their anger is symptomatic of the growing contempt in some loyalist communities for a peace process that has, in their eyes, abandoned them. Men like Martin McGuiness sit in government, the victims of Bloody Sunday are beatified and convicted IRA gunmen are released. These may have been necessary concessions, but the same leniency has not been extended to extreme loyalists. Disarrayed mainstream loyalist parties sustain the self-pitying tension, denying it legitimate recourse in politics. The effects of this are seen in the video above where loyalist youths turn on the police, the agents of the detested new political order.
This dissent goes beyond hooded petty criminals: serious crime has been organised to exploit ancient sectarian hatreds. In recent months, gangs from nationalist areas have been targeting the police. And their drug dealing, people trafficking and extortion has been done in the name of the Father. Bomb threats were also made on London for the first time in years. However, on this latest occasion, the blame is apportioned to nominally loyalist gangs. The Irish Times reports that the East Belfast section of the once paramilitary Ulster Volunteer Force has been revived by a Mafiosi, styled the ‘Beast of the East’. He is believed to have masterminded riots that saw the police fired on by loyalist protestors, their violence committed in the name of the Union.
It’s important to stress that these were minor disruptions – staggered confrontations on a few streets in a large city. Nonetheless, it is indicative of a wider test of Stormont. Economic solutions are necessary; but there is also the question of emboldening the PSNI against organised criminals on both sides of the historical divide, and the awkward issue of accomodating those who feel disenfranchised. While at the partisan level, lamentable mainstream unionist parties need to re-group and re-engage with loyalist communities.
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