Seth J. Frantzman

Ankara’s aggression has spurred a most unlikely pact

(Photo by ADEM ALTAN/AFP via Getty Images)

The monumental accords being signed in Washington between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain represent a new era in Israeli peacemaking. These agreements are being signed with Gulf states and they are a result of shared interests. At the top of the list of Israeli concerns is the Iranian threat. But Turkey’s increasingly aggressive stance in the Mediterranean and across the Middle East is easily overlooked as a catalyst for closer Israeli-UAE relations. 

In the last year, Turkey has invaded parts of northern Syria, sent mercenaries to fight in Libya, launched a military operation in northern Iraq, and threatened Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and France. Ankara’s decision to deploy a naval flotilla in the Mediterranean has led to Greek and Egyptian military exercises with the UAE participating in the Greek drill and supporting Egypt in Libya. Increasingly Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, France and the UAE share concerns about Ankara’s antics.

To understand how Turkey’s role helped bring Israel and the UAE closer together we need to understand how Abu Dhabi and Ankara are on different sides in the Middle East. The UAE is a central ally of Saudi Arabia and together they work closely with Bahrain and Egypt. For instance, when in 2015 Saudi intervened in Yemen’s civil war to fight Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, the UAE played a key supporting role. The UAE also helped the Egyptian-backed general Khalifa Haftar in Libya’s civil war. Turkey backs the opponents of Haftar.

Turkey is attempting to ride the Palestinian issue, positioning itself as a champion of the cause

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE are also the foremost opponents of the Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East. Erdogan and his AK Party have roots in the Brotherhood. His support for the former Egyptian leader Mohammed Morsi, and its support for Hamas, is linked to a shared Brotherhood background. Ankara hosted Hamas leaders twice this year.

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Written by
Seth J. Frantzman

Seth Frantzman is the author of Drone Wars: Pioneers, Killing Machine, Artificial Intelligence and the Battle for the Future (Bombardier 2021) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

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