Ian Acheson Ian Acheson

Are loyalists plotting a return to violence?

(Getty images)

What are we to make of Loyalist paramilitary groups withdrawing support for the Good Friday Agreement over the invidious trade border that now exists in the Irish sea?

The Loyalist Communities Council, a group that represents the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF), Ulster Defence Association (UDA) and the Red Hand Commando, has written to Boris Johnson and Ireland’s Taoiseach, Micheál Martin, warning of ‘permanent destruction’ of the 1998 peace agreement unless changes are made to the Brexit agreement. 

‘If you or the EU is not prepared to honour the entirety of the agreement then you will be responsible for the permanent destruction of the agreement,’ David Campbell, the chairman of the LCC, said.

Could Loyalists return again to the violence that left so many innocent people butchered and terrorised? For now, thankfully, this latest iteration of hard line Loyalist sentiment comes with several caveats. 

Dissident Republicans are animated by grievance and thwarted ambitions

Their target is the Northern Ireland Protocol, the greasy lubricant of Brexit that looks to have

disadvantaged all communities on the island of Ireland. That bureaucratic bungle will however be easier to fix than the unravelling commitment to what was always a shaky prospect in post-conflict Northern Ireland: the rule of law.

The Loyalist communique emphasises that unionist opposition to the protocol must be peaceful and democratic. But in Loyalist and Republican heartlands, where ancient enmities still simmer, young people remain at risk of being drawn back into unfinished business. 

Dissident Republicans are animated by grievance and thwarted ambitions for their 32 county socialist utopia built on blood. It’s not inconceivable that dissident Loyalists are also being radicalised by current events. If it happens, the dry lexicon of the Northern Ireland Protocol won’t be the source of any new violence, but it is certainly a harbinger.

Reaction to the protocol is a symptom of a wider crisis of identity and morale within working class Loyalism.

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