Bankrupt councils, the imminent collapse of Thames Water, prison overcrowding and a row with unions over public sector pay are some of the unwelcome prospects facing Keir Starmer if he wins the election. Sue Gray, the Labour leader’s chief of staff, has compiled a so-called ‘shit list’ of such things which could derail any potential Labour government in the early days of its tenure in Downing Street. There’s another problem to add to the list: the prospect of Sinn Fein triumphing in Northern Ireland and becoming the Province’s largest party at Westminster.
Northern Ireland will be the main source of constitutional angst
A shambolic DUP campaign could easily end up handing Sinn Fein victory. If the DUP haemorrhage enough votes to other unionist parties then tight seats like East Belfast or South Antrim could slip from the party’s grasp to Alliance or the Ulster Unionists respectively. There would only be one winner from this outcome: Sinn Fein.
Sinn Fein could also defenestrate the two sitting SDLP MPs Colum Eastwood and Claire Hanna, though under Eastwood’s leadership it is increasingly difficult to distinguish between the tone and tenor of the so-called moderate nationalists of the SDLP and Sinn Fein.
These scenarios would hand most of Northern Ireland’s 18 Westminster seats to Sinn Fein, a party that continues to refuse to take up its seats in the Commons. A Sinn Fein victory would send those who subscribe to the march of history thesis around Northern Irish politics into overdrive; the nationalist machine will ratchet up its demands for what it is euphemistically branding as a ‘conversation’ about the need for a ‘new Ireland’.
The head first rush towards a demand for a border poll is a typical Irish nationalist reflex, often ignorant of process, nuance and the fact most polling suggests it is not the done thing many of them think it is. There is a difference between Sinn Fein’s electoral might and how that translates to a referendum.
Nevertheless, it poses an interesting challenge for Starmer and co, especially as they wrap themselves in the Union Flag in the campaign. Working on the assumption that a sizeable Labour victory in Scotland silences the independence issue there for the foreseeable, Northern Ireland will be the main source of constitutional angst.
Labour does not stand candidates in Northern Ireland and over the years plenty of its MPs and members have been inherently sympathetic to the causes of Irish nationalism and indeed, republicanism. The Labour Party Irish Society – incidentally chaired by Sue Gray’s son, Liam Conlon – supports the stance of not standing candidates there, and has stressed the need for the party to be an ‘honest broker’ in Northern Irish politics.
Starmer himself said he would campaign to keep Northern Ireland in the UK, a profession of unionism which is somewhat askance with the more lukewarm stance of a considerable chunk of his party.
The early election poses questions for Northern Ireland, especially how a recently rebooted and tentatively cohesive Stormont will cope with a full-blooded campaign where the unionist parties are likely to rehash their internal disputes over the Irish Sea border. However, the ingrained ambivalence in Labour beyond Starmer towards Ulster unionism will not have gone unnoticed amongst those who want to push the envelope around a border poll.
While it will be a slow burner, a prolonged period of Labour rule is not unhelpful to those who view Northern Ireland’s departure from the UK as their end goal. Those who care about the integrity of the country need to be ready to respond.
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