In the visceral two horse race which is Northern Irish politics, it is the green horse which is out in front after last Thursday’s local council elections.
Sinn Fein, as at Stormont, is now the largest party across Northern Ireland’s local authorities. A lot has changed since the 1980s, when, during the IRA’s campaign of murder and mutilation across the Province, unionists would walk out of council meetings rather than sit with Sinn Fein councillors.
The stain of terrorism which will forever be part of Sinn Fein does not seem to be a deterrent to the nationalist electorate in Northern Ireland. Many will say that Sinn Fein is a political party that people are entitled to vote for, but their continuing hegemony does speak uncomfortable truths about the values and priorities of members of the communities which support them.
Sinn Fein, as at Stormont, is now the largest party across Northern Ireland’s local authorities
Sinn Fein’s comprehensive cannibalisation of the SDLP – the party of John Hume is now led by a poor imitation in the shape of serial loser Colum Eastwood – is proof of nationalism’s inherent thirst for the stronger stuff. Who wants fluffy, social democratic language about baby steps towards an Ireland of equals when you can have the full-fat alternative?
Nationalists of all hues believe in the inexorable march of destiny towards their ambitions and Irish nationalists are no different. Sinn Fein and their cheerleaders will bandy these results around as proof that the so-called promised land is on the horizon.
However, simply winning more in an area you’re already popular is hardly transformational in the long run. Sinn Fein winning round an SDLP voter – presumably already convinced of the merits of a border poll and all that entails – is not going to turbocharge the pursuit for a united Ireland.
Indeed, one of the main takeaways from this election is that political unionism in the shape of the Democratic Unionists and Ulster Unionists are, more through cock-up than conspiracy, doing their best to make Sinn Fein look better than they actually are.
Despite losing electoral ground, the DUP remains the dominant unionist force. That will be taken by some within the party as validation of its position on the Windsor Framework and will dampen external expectations that the party may return to power-sharing later this year. However, in the symbiotic relationship between nationalism and unionism, this trenchant stance over power-sharing has played its part in coalescing nationalism around Sinn Fein.
As with nationalism, the supposedly moderate unionist party is in seemingly terminal decline. The Ulster Unionists recorded their worst ever performance in council elections in 2019 and they’re on course to delve even further into the mire this time round. Under the leadership of Doug Beattie, the party has spoken at length about creating a ‘union of people’ without ever explaining what that means. Its banalities have once again failed to stop its base from atrophying even further or attracting people back from the Alliance Party.
The most damming set of statistics for unionism is however not councillors lost or share of vote, but turnout. Initial assessments have shown a much stronger turnout in nationalist and republican areas than unionist areas. Not only is that testament to the ruthless efficiency of the Sinn Fein machine, but the lack of enthusiasm for the unionist parties among their own people.
That in and of itself shows that the unionist parties clearly need to undertake a substantive strategic refresh. However, it also shows that there is an untapped well of potential support which is currently apathetic. It would also be wishful thinking on the part of nationalism to expect that such apathy would be repeated at any future border poll, though that is unlikely to feature in any giddy post-match analysis in the coming days.
Regardless, the continuing problem with unionism is that despite having plenty of warnings fired across its bows in recent years – the loss of its majority at Westminster, Sinn Fein becoming the largest party at Stormont – its leadership fails to reflect on what is needed to turn the tide. Until those missteps are sorted out, expect them to continue to be weaponised by a gleeful Sinn Fein to generate yet more noise in the quest for constitutional change.
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