Are the Tories walking into a Labour fracking trap?

The Tory whips have, in their great wisdom, decided to make today’s opposition day vote on fracking a ‘confidence issue’ in Liz Truss’s government. The Labour motion this afternoon isn’t the usual non-binding partisan one, but a mechanism which would allow the opposition to introduce a bill into the Commons banning the practice. It is the same technique that saw 21 Tory MPs lose the whip during the Brexit debates.

The Labour tactic makes it much harder for the government to just ignore the motion and allow MPs to abstain. Last night, Tory MPs were told they were on an extremely strict three-line whip, and today the party made clear that it would enforce that at the strictest level. ‘This is not a motion on fracking,’ reads the email from deputy chief whip Craig Whittaker. ‘This is a confidence motion in the government.’ He later adds that ‘I know this is difficult for some colleagues’.

The matter came up at Prime Minister’s questions just now. Fylde MP Mark Menzies asked for reassurance that ‘local consent’ for shale gas extraction wouldn’t be something fracking companies themselves would be involved in evaluating, and that if a community did vote against it, ’that decision will be respected’. Truss replied that ‘I can assure him that we will consult on the robust system of local consent’ and that the Business Secretary would be saying more later today.

Is this a trap that the Tories have walked into? Labour is circulating a list of MPs who have spoken out against fracking to highlight how ‘difficult’ this is for some of them. Shadow leader of the house Thangam Debbonaire has asked for urgent clarification that if the government does lose this vote, ‘the Prime Minister will resign and the government will fall’. The party is also briefing that it has the adverts ready in all the seats listed pointing out that the local Tory MP supported fracking. It is too early for the rebels to bring the Truss government down: while those working to remove her are in constant meetings with colleagues, they haven’t got the plan for her replacement nailed down at all, and the chaos that would ensue is not something they can contemplate.